It is ironic how “seemingly intractable” the Palestinian problem is, as Hillary Clinton, the designate Secretary of State in the Obama administration succinctly put it, while deposing on January 12, 2009, before the Senate Foreign Affairs Committee. The irony is that, on January 9, 2009, the day following the promulgation of UN Security Council Resolution 1860 calling for an immediate ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, there was a substantial increase in Hamas rocket fire at Israeli targets. On January 8th, 15 rockets and four mortar shells fell in Israeli territory and 35 rockets and 14 mortar shells on January 9th. Clinton said America must recognize Israel’s right to defend itself from Hamas rockets but could not ignore the suffering of Palestinians. “Real security for Israel, normal and positive relations with its neighbours as well as genuine security for Palestinians of Gaza and the West Bank” is, in her perception, the challenge she faces on Day 1 of her assuming office. She has her task cut out for her. Let us examine the complexities the world faces in resolving this conflict.
Operation Cast Lead
The Israelis began the operation by air strikes on December 27, 2008, with the ground offensive commencing on 03 January 2009. Israeli Defence Force (IDF) infantry, armoured, engineering and artillery forces entered the Gaza Strip with backup from the sea and air. Their objectives were to damage Hamas and its terrorist infrastructure, take control of rocket / mortar launching sites and reduce attacks on Israeli territory. The war continues unabated, notwithstanding the Israeli claim of having killed nearly 200 Hamas fighters. Since the offensive began, 971 people have been killed in Gaza with 4,400 people injured. 13 Israelis have died so far, three of them civilians, with 41 wounded.
The ground operation has dismantled terrorist infrastructure, including tunnels, weapons stores, rocket and mortar shell launching sites, terrorist operatives, military bases and terrorist bases that had situated in mosques and other buildings. The Israeli Air Force and Navy have provided back-up for the ground forces operating in the Gaza Strip, attacking approximately 1,500 targets numerated above, Hamas’s operational network, weapons stores, posts and training camps. Since the beginning of Operation Cast Lead, Hamas has fired 439 rockets and 158 mortar shells at the Israeli heartland/IDF.
Genesis of the Palestinian Problem: Early History
It is necessary to place the current Israeli-Palestinian conflict into context before exploring its various strands. The facts are not in dispute. In 1897, the First Zionist Congress was held for establishing a homeland for the Jewish people. Palestine, 112 years ago, had about 600,000 inhabitants, 95% of whom were Arabs, while 5% were only Jews. It comprised of current day Israel as well as the West Bank and the Gaza strip. In 1922, the League of Nations granted Great Britain mandatory power over Palestine to aid in establishment of a Jewish homeland. Jewish immigration into Palestine reached peak levels after the German genocide against Jews. By 1947, on the eve of the UN decision to partition Palestine, there were 1.35 million Palestinian Arabs and 650,000 Jews, who had acquired roughly 6% of the mandated area of Palestine. Yet, the UN General Assembly gave the Jews around 56% of Palestine.
The Palestinians and neighbouring Arab countries refused to accept the UN partition resolution and waged war on the new state of Israel but lost. In the aftermath of the1948 defeat, close to half the Palestinian population (around 750,000) became refugees, both inside and outside what remained of their own country. They number over three million now, with no hope of returning or being integrated in neighbouring Arab countries where most of them live. After their defeat in 1948, Arab states continued to wage wars on Israel, and continued to lose. Finally, "the era of peace" arrived, ushered in by the Camp David Agreement with Egypt in 1978. This offered a temporary respite from conflict.
Recent Developments on Palestine
The September 1993 Accord provided for a transitional period of Palestinian self-rule in the West Bank (including East Jerusalem) and Gaza Strip that comprise today’s Palestine “State”. Between May 1994 and September 1999, Israel transferred to the Palestinian Authority (PA), the security and civil responsibilities for the Palestinian occupied areas of the West Bank and Gaza strip. Negotiations stalled due to the Intifada in September 2000. In April 2003, the Quartet (US, EU, UN and Russia) presented a road map for final settlement of the Palestinian problem by 2005. Progress was stalled as both sides reneged on the preconditions to make a final settlement possible. Yasser Arafat, the charismatic PLO leader, died in end 2004 and Mahmoud Abbas was selected the PA leader in January 2005. In September, Israel unilaterally withdrew settlements and troops from the Gaza portion of the PA. In March 2006, Hamas, post elections, democratically took control of the PA government. Voters rewarded Hamas for its efficient administration of public services and lack of corruption that had become associated with Fatah. However the new government failed to renounce violence and recognise the right of Israel to exist within a potential two state solution. The Hamas dominance also led to Fatah and Hamas clashes.
In February 2007, the “Mecca Agreement” was signed in Riyadh that resulted in the formation of the Palestinian National Unity Government (NUG) headed by Hamas leader Haniya, with Mahmoud Abbas continuing as President. This Government has also failed as the Hamas agenda of war against Israel continued unabated. In June 2007, Hamas took over complete control of Gaza. Since then, it has relentlessly followed its focused agenda of jihad against Israel. The Israelis however regard Palestine as their own "biblical homeland” and many aspire for a “Greater Israel” that includes the West Bank and Gaza. The Palestinians continue to resist, increasingly in ways which most of the world has come to regard as terrorist. It is now necessary to have an insight about the Palestinian state as it exists; its geography, economy, demography and interplay with Israel
The West Bank
This is the major part of today’s Palestine. It is located West of Jordan and has a land area of 5860 square kilometers including the North West portion of the Dead Sea. It includes, the West bank, the Latrun Salient, the North West Dead Sea but excludes Mount Scopus. The West Bank as a whole has a 307 km boundary with Israel and 97 km with Jordan. It has 340 Israeli settlements (187,000 inhabitants) and 29 Israeli settlements (177,000 inhabitants) in East Jerusalem. The total population is over 2.4 million with 75 percent being Sunni Muslims, 17 percent Jews and 8 percent Christians. The median age is 20.2 years. The GDP per capita (PPP) is $1100. The West Bank uses the New Israeli Shekel and the Jordanian Dinar as currency. Most of its electricity is supplied by Israel. It has three airports, a relatively good network of roads and a work force led by services provision, cottage industry and agriculture. It has a 350 strength UN Truce Supervisory Organisation (UNTSO) headquartered in Jerusalem. Its trading partners are Israel, Jordan, Gaza and Egypt.
THE GAZA STRIP
Gaza (locally called Qita Ghazzah) is located in the Middle East and borders the Mediterranean Sea between Israel and Egypt. It is 365 kilometers square, has a 62 kilometer border (51 kilometers with Israel, 11 with Egypt) and a 40 kilometer sea front. This part of the Palestine “State” is 40 kilometers long, with the narrowest and widest parts being five and ten kilometers respectively. Gaza has rolling sandy countryside, some of it arable, located mostly at sea level. It has a population of 1.5 million with the median age being 15.65. It is inhabited by 98.7 percent Sunni Muslims and 0.7 percent Christians. O.6 percent Jewish settlers were also present but were relocated in September 2005 by Israel. Literacy in Gaza is at 91 percent. Per capita GDP is equated to a Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) of $600. Gaza has a services driven economy. It has a labour force of 7, 25,000 with 63 percent employed in services, 28 percent in small cottage industry and 9 percent in agriculture. 81 percent Gazans live below the poverty line. 45.5 percent Gazans are unemployed. About 1 million of Gaza's 1.5 million people are refugees. Gaza trades with Egypt, Israel and the West Bank. Its currency is the new Israeli Shekel. Electricity is provided by Israel, as also Maritime and Air security. Gaza has one International Airport (decommissioned by Israel since 2004), one airstrip (out of use), one heliport, one port, two TV stations and three Internet Service Providers (ISP’s). Telephone services are rudimentary. The borders of the strip are enclosed by Israeli fences, checkpoints and buffer zones designed to prevent bomb-wielding militants from attacking Israel, but imposing a claustrophobic atmosphere that makes peace seem a distant dream.
Gaza has thus been “gated” from three sides with the Mediterranean Sea completing its isolation. It has six manned crossing points, of which five connect it with Israel and one with Egypt. These from North to South are Erez (in Gaza North administrative “province”), Nahal and Karni (in Gaza province). The next two provinces, North to South, are “Middle Area” and “Khan Yunis,” which have no crossings. Rafah, the Southern most provinces, has the Sufa and Keren Shalom crossing points with Israel and the Rafah crossing with Egypt. The wall facing Israel has, besides the wall, a 150 meter “No-Go” buffer zone. On the Gazan side, the buffer zone is 500 meters. The Hamas has constructed various types of tunnels on the Gaza border with Egypt for smuggling in arms, munitions etc, thereby bypassing the manned Rafah crossing point through which Israel permits only humanitarian aid to pass. 20 percent of households are unconnected to the water and sewage system, and 90 per cent of the drinking water is contaminated with nitrates. About 70 per cent of Gazans are dependent on food aid.
What is Hamas? The Hezbollah/ Syria/Iran Connection
Hamas, which today runs Gaza strip, takes its name from the Arabic initials for the Islamic Resistance Movement. It is seen by its supporters as a legitimate fighting force defending Palestinians from a brutal military occupation. It is the largest Palestinian militant Islamist organisation, formed in 1987 at the beginning of the first intifada, against Israel's occupation in the West Bank and Gaza. The Hamas charter was formulated during 1987-1993. It is Hamas’s most important ideological document. The main points of the Hamas charter are that the conflict with Israel is religious and political. All Palestine is Muslim land and no one has the right to give it up. The importance of jihad (holy war) is the main means for the Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) to achieve its goals. The charter is rife with overt anti-Semitism. For years the organisation was divided into two main spheres of operation: Social programmes like building schools, hospitals and religious institutions and militant operations carried out by Hamas' underground Iss al-Din Qassam Brigades.
Hezbollah (Arabic for "party of God") emerged in 1982 from the Shiite Muslim population of South Lebanon with the help of Iranian Revolutionary Guards who traveled to the Bekaa Valley in Lebanon to fight Israel following its incursion into the region. Israel entered Lebanon in response to the PLO, which mounted repeated cross-border attacks against Israel after establishing its base in Lebanon in the early 1970s. Despite the Israeli army's withdrawal from South Lebanon, Hezbollah has reinforced its grip over that territory, acquiring missiles and armaments and entrenching itself on Israel's northern border. Hezbollah has also increased its presence in the West Bank and Gaza, providing weapons, training and funds to Palestinian terrorist groups. Its moral and material sustenance comes from Iran and Syria. Since it is not on the best of terms with Hamas, the Arab world led by Hezbollah, has not responded with much enthusiasm. Hezbollah is consolidating its position and does not want to open a front against Israel at this critical juncture.
Israeli Motives
Israel, firstly, expects to weaken Hamas substantially by killing its fighters and destroying its rocket stockpile. Secondly, to establish Israeli deterrence so that Hamas will be more wary of firing cross-border rockets and using smuggling tunnels. Israel's underlying motivation for going to war in Gaza is, more importantly, to protect some of its most important defence installations. "It's only a matter of a year or two before Hamas threatens Ben-Gurion, the only international airport Israel has," said Hillel Frisch, senior research fellow at the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies in Tel Aviv. In the past week, Palestinian militants in Gaza have been firing longer-range Grad-type missiles at targets in Israel, scoring numerous hits on towns like Beersheba, 40 kilometres from Israel's border with Gaza. The airport is located 20 kilometres southeast of Tel Aviv. Frisch says that the facilities that could be targeted as also Israel's nuclear reactor in Dimona, about 40 kilometres east of Beersheba, or 80 kilometres from Gaza.
What the Future Holds
As per BBC reportage, Maj Gen (Retd) Yaakov Amidror believes Israel should neutralise Gaza “as decisively as it went into the West Bank during the second intifada”. Amidror however concedes that few people inside Israel want to put the 1.5 million Palestinians inside Gaza back under full Israeli control. On the other hand, Maj Gen (Retd) Giora Eiland, the former head of Israel's National Security Council, says that though a “wide military re-occupation of Gaza” is certainly an option, he favours halting operations now, and instead turning the screw(s) on Egypt. The ideal, he says, would be to stop arms smuggling by forcing Egypt to police a buffer zone five to 10 kilometres (three to seven miles) around Gaza's south-western border.
India is used to (if not callous) the loss of lives. To us, therefore, Israel’s obsession with the safety of its soldiers appears ridiculous. Not so in Israel. This display of state policy is best indicated that the Israelis have yet another goal which the senior echelons of the Israeli military discuss – releasing Corporal Gilad Shalit, the soldier captured by Hamas two and a half years ago. Maj Gen Dayan thinks that “Israel's military objectives should extend beyond stopping rockets, to mass arrests”. He says Israel now has a "good opportunity to arrest 1,000 Hamas members". That should be enough, he feels, to speed up Corporals Shalit's return to Israel. The BBC further reports that Maj Gen Eiland feels Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert may be wrong in considering the option of toppling Hamas altogether. He says "It is not necessarily better than to have a weakened Hamas." That, at least, he says, would be "one accountable government, that has something to lose, something to deliver to its own people."
A united Israel however knows that it has only a few days at most to achieve its goals. As one senior Israeli officer has put it, “Israel may have all the time in the world; but the world does not have all the time for Israel".