When Prime Minister Modi visited Moscow for his first bilateral visit since starting his third term, it marked the first annual summit between the leaders after three years. The visit revitalized the relationship, highlighted by Modi receiving Russia’s highest honor, ‘The Order of St. Andrews.’ The two-day visit included discussions on various issues, including defense deals, trade, energy, and geopolitical concerns. This visit reinforced the “special and privileged partnership” between India and Russia, shaping the future of their 70-year-old relationship amid a fragmented world.

The Modi-Putin Summit

When Prime Minister Modi visited Moscow – his first bilateral visit, since taking over as PM for his third term – it was the first annual summit between the leaders after three years. The visit more than punched the ‘reset’ button, and the personal warmth between the two leaders was apparent. He was presented with Russia’s highest honour ‘The Order of St Andrews,’ hosted for dinner by Putin, who drove him himself around his dasha, and  called him “Param Dost.” In the two day visit, a host of issues were discussed, ranging from the return of Indians fighting for Russia, defence deals, trade, energy, development of transport corridors, and others. Even more delicate issues would have been discussed behind closed doors, like the Ukraine War, Russia-China ties, the India-US relationship and its impact on this traditional friendship. But the warmth and genuine bonding was not just a photo-op. The visit helped cement the “special and privileged partnership,” that could shape the contours of this 70 year old relationship in an increasingly fragmented world.

Ironically, around the same time, 32 leaders of NATO met at Washington to commemorate 75 years of the alliance. As this primarily anti-USSR alliance closes ranks, the Indian embrace would have been watched with a mixture of interest and apprehension. Zelensky bemoaned the fact that “the leader of the world’s largest democracy hugged a mass murderer”  – more so, since an alleged Russian strike had hit a Ukrainian school days before. Of course, they were conspicuously silent at the Israeli strikes on a Gaza camp the same day. But then, morality and outrage vary as per the standards of self-interest.

India’s Balancing Act

India has played a delicate balancing act in preserving its friendship with Russia and still develop stronger ties with the US and the West. Russia’s time-tested friendship has provided India with defence equipment, political support, energy supplies, trade, infrastructure, technology (albeit, not the latest) and even nuclear reactors. In fact, India’s largest nuclear power plant at Kudankulam was made in collaboration with Russia and recently commissioned. Over 60 percent of its defence equipment is of Russian origin and we are heavily dependent on Russian spares and hardware for our defence needs. Even though India is gradually diversifying to more advanced equipment from USA, Israel and France, it will take decades to wean away completely.

A sore point for the West, was India’s refusal to take sides in the Ukraine war. It has maintained a fine balance, not explicitly condemning Russia, but still calling for an end to the war, and condemning the loss of lives. Modi’s message to Putin on the side-lines of the SCO summit last year that, “this is not the era of war” has found resonance. The same message was delivered again when he conveyed to Putin that “ a solution cannot be found on the battlefield.”

That in itself, is an indicator of the role that India can play to stop this war. Prime Minister Modi did not attend the peace meeting in Switzerland, nor did India sign the joint statement there, but India is one of the few players that can broker peace. Modi has personal equations with both Zelensky and Putin, which could at least get them on the negotiating table. Perhaps the results of the US elections in November could create an environment to end this pointless war, and India may be called upon to play a major role then. Perhaps Putin himself would be hoping for an end to this war – though of course, on Russian terms.

Another sore point has been India’s defiance of US sanctions by continuing to buy Russian oil, fertilisers, spares and electronics – often at heavily discounted rates and in Rupee-Rouble trade. This has proved a win-win for both. It provided energy-dependent India with massive amounts of cheap oil, and gave Russia a market for it. Russia has now supplanted Saudi Arabia as the largest supplier of crude oil to India, and the volumes are likely to grow. Indo-Russia trade too has been boosted from just $30 billion at the start of the war, to a whopping  $65.7 billion last year and is targeted to reach $100 Billion by 2030. Measures like the use of national currencies and the development of trade routes like the 7200 km long International North-South Transport Corridor, and the Chennai-Vladivostok Sea route will enhance bilateral trade significantly and perhaps even surpass the targeted figure. Yet, the balance of trade is heavily skewed in Russia’s favour, (which provides $57 Billion of exports to India) and needs to be seriously addressed.

Russia-China Ties

Yet, the time-tested India-Russia ties remain under the shadow of the Russia-China “partnership without limits.” China is definitely the more important partner to Russia, and their $240 Billion trade is four times that of India. China also provides dual-use equipment and political and moral support to Russia. In fact, China was accused of being ‘A decisive enabler, of Russia’s war against Ukraine’ during the NATO Summit – a charge, they flatly shrugged off. Russia has been pushed squarely into China’s embrace after its isolation by the west, and is now dependent on China, both strategically and economically. However, it is the junior partner in the relationship. That itself raises fears of how strongly Russia will stand up for Indian interests against China. Indian and Chinese troops have been in a face-off along the LAC for four years now, and if push comes to shove, Russia could be coerced by China to halt the provisioning of spares and supplies, toe its line in the UN, and deny India much-needed political and material support.

Yet, there is a caveat to this. Russia too has realised the dangers of the Chinese embrace and seeks to shake off the dependence by launching a vigorous diplomatic campaign to rejuvenate ties with allies like North Korea, Iran, Africa and especially India. They would want to nurture an independent relationship with India that actually balances the Russia-China one and is equally vital. In fact, Russian security doctrines speak of a Russia-China-India relationship as the essential partnership in the coming world order. Surprisingly, this view is also echoed in some Chinese writings, and perhaps is not too far-fetched. After all, in spite of the border stand-off, India-China trade has actually increased to $118.4 Billion in 2024, and it has surpassed USA to become our largest trading partner.

Ties with USA

While India has been maintaining and nurturing its relationship with Russia, we have also maintained a fine balance in the growing partnership with the USA and the West. There is no doubt that the world is fast being divided into two camps – one of a US led western order (along with Japan, S Korea, Australia and others) and a China- Russia-North Korea- Iran axis. India actually forms the fulcrum and the balance of power will shift to the side India tilts towards. India shares the fears of Chinese expansionism and is being wooed by the west to provide a much-needed counter in the region. India has gradually tilted towards the US and the West, and are ideologically aligned with their values. Yet, even though we are part of QUAD, we have not entered into any formal alliance and staunchly maintained our strategic autonomy.

Yet, as relations deteriorate between the US led western order and Russia and China, we will be increasingly pushed to take sides. In fact, it is telling that immediately after Modi’s visit, the US Ambassador to India gave a darkly veiled warning that Indo-US ties could not be taken for granted and there was “no place for strategic autonomy in these times of global conflict.” Yet, it is equally telling, that immediately after the initial outbursts, the official statements emphasised on “shared values and ties, in which America sees its future with India, and India sees its future with America.”

While Indo-US ties are important – as are the ones with Russia – we have also developed relations with a slew of disparate powers – Japan, Australia, South Korea, UK, Germany, France, Israel even Saudi Arabia and Iran. In a way, India has moved on from non-alignment to multi-alignment. As India strives to become one of the poles of power in a multi-polar world, these ties will help reinforce our position. Both the US and the Russian relationship are important to us. Both must be nurtured and cultivated and neither can be at the expense of the other. So far, India has held that delicate balance, but maintaining it in the years ahead, will be the true test of our foreign policy.