In early November, an Israeli Sa’ar 5-class corvette discreetly transited the Suez Canal, sparking regional controversy amidst Egypt’s compliance with the 1888 Constantinople Convention. Meanwhile, Iran’s suspected nuclear advancements and weapon transfers heighten Middle Eastern tensions, intensifying fears of regional instability.

In early November, a warship flying Israeli and Egypt flags was sighted sailing through the Suez Canal heading towards the Red Sea. The vessel was identified as the Sa’ar 5 class corvette of the Israeli Navy; but its name and pennant number had been painted over to avoid disclosing the name of the ship. The presence of the Israeli warship in the Canal created a domestic political uproar and sparked controversy on the Egyptian and Palestinians social media that Egypt should not have permitted the Israeli warship to make transit through the Canal given that it was accused of human rights abuses in Gaza.  The Canal Authority clarified that it is bound by the 1888 Constantinople Convention wherein the Canal has to be open to both commercial and military vessels. Furthermore, Egypt being the authority controlling it must ensure “unimpeded passage for both commercial and military vessels, regardless of nationality”.

At the time of writing this article, there is no information about the sighting of the Israeli warship making a return voyage through the Suez Canal which gives the impression that the vessel is deployed in the Indian Ocean and may be receiving logistic support from many of friendly countries particularly the United States. The Israeli authorities also did not provide details of the warship’s destination ostensibly for security reasons.

It is not the first time that Israeli warships and submarines have ventured into the Indian Ocean through the Suez Canal; therefore, there is nothing alarming about the Israeli warships transiting the Canal; however, the Israeli submarines are suspected to be equipped with missiles that are fitted with warhead for a nuclear attack.

Nuclear Ambitions

The 1979 Iranian revolution under the leadership of Ayatollah Khomeini resulted in the fall of Shah Regime and founding of Iran as an Islamic republic. There was a quiet desire during both the regimes (Shah and Khomeini) in Tehran, for a national nuclear programme (civil and military) but it had remained dormant. However, the 1980-1988 Iran-Iraq was sufficient trigger for the Iranian political and military leaders to consider seriously a nuclear pathway.  Over the past three decades or so, Iran has developed sufficient nuclear knowledge and infrastructure for both civil and military nuclear programme. However, Tehran has vehemently reiterated to the international community about Iran’s nuclear programme and stated that Iran’s nuclear programme is only for peaceful purposes. In April 2024, an Iranian government spokesperson stated “nuclear programme only serves peaceful purposes. Nuclear weapons have no place in our nuclear doctrine,”

Today, however, Iran is suspected to be enriching uranium to 60 % purity levels and may even be close to 90 % which is considered a weapons grade. In this context, three of the UN Security Council Members (US, UK, France) and Germany have recently expressed concern regarding Tehran’s decision to “launch a series of new centrifuges for its nuclear program”.

Iran’s nuclear weapon and delivery system ambitions have been in the crosshair particularly the US and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). The NATO warned “any transfer of ballistic missiles and related technology by Iran to Russia would represent a substantial escalation.” The warning followed an earlier warning by the G7 members cautioning Iran against supplying ballistic missiles to Russia. “We call on Iran to stop assisting Russia’s war in Ukraine and not to transfer ballistic missiles and related technology, as this would represent a substantive material escalation and a direct threat to European security,” In September 2024, Secretary of State Antony Blinken accused Iran of delivering Fath-360 short range ballistic missiles to Russia.

Iran is accused of supplying up to 3,000 drones of the Shahed 136 model to Russia. These are cheap ($20,000 to $50,000 per piece) when compared with PGMs or missiles and have been put to effective use in the war against Ukraine. US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan has revealed that “the Iranian government is preparing to provide Russia with up to several hundred UAVs, including weapons-capable UAVs on an expedited timeline”.

As far as Israel is concerned, it sees a nuclear Iran as an existential threat “grounded in the interpretation of Iran as fanatic/irrational/messianic (or all of the above)”. It has attempted to destroy the infrastructure through attacks and the  October 2024 airstrike against Iran resulted in the destruction of a nuclear weapons research facility in Parchin. Iran believes that Iran is the mastermind behind the assassination of Iranian scientists. As many as five Iranian nuclear scientists are reported to have been killed between 2010 and 2020.

Israel’s nuclear (covert and now overt) weapon programme and its missile capability has also been the trigger for the nuclear ambitions of Saudi Arabia. In fact, Saudi Arabia had supported Pakistan’s nuclear weapon program through financial support. Lord David Owen, a former British foreign secretary (1977-1979) accused Saudi Arabia of funding Pakistan nuclear weapons programme. “Nuclear weapons programmes are extremely expensive and there’s no question that a lot of the funding of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons programme was provided by Saudi Arabia,” Further, a former US defense official had observed that “There has been a long-standing agreement in place with the Pakistanis and the House of Saud has now made the strategic decision to move forward.” However, there now appears to be thaw in Iran Saudi relations and the two sides conducted military drill at sea in the Gulf of Oman in October 2024. This reproachma has been brokered by China.

The regional countries are anxious about a ‘nuclear Iran’ and concerned that an emboldened Tehran would pursue an aggressive foreign policy and destabilize an already highly volatile region. Also, Iran’s nuclear weapons programme can trigger an arms race in the Middle East that would further aggravate regional tensions.

In case Iran declares itself as fully nuclear weapon capable, there is distinct possibility of at least three coalitions that may emerge.  First, a Russia-Iran-DPRK partnership is a potential major challenge to any US led western alliance in the Gulf region. There is now credible evidence of the Russian, Iranian and North Korean strategic cooperation particularly in the supply of military hardware to support the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine. In the context of North Korea, has dispatched over 13,000 cargo container filled with ammunitions, missiles and personal weapons to Russia since 2023. Besides, 11,000 troops which have been deployed on the Russia-Ukraine border in the Kursk region and are fighting the Ukrainian alongside the Russia soldiers. According to unconfirmed reports at least 500 North Korean soldiers may have been killed in a Ukraine missile attack on Russia in the Kursk region where these soldiers had been deployed. There are now reports that Russia has supplied air defence systems to North Korea.

At another level, Russia, China and Iran have conducted naval exercises and it was observed that “a strategic alignment in the making between the three countries, with an aim to protect their shared strategic interests in the Indian Ocean.” The fifth iteration of these trilateral exercises was held in March 2024 in the Gulf of Oman and Meir Javedanfar, an Israeli scholar commented that “the fact that these exercises are taking place against the background of an unprecedented U.S. and Western naval presence in the Middle East shows that the rivalry between the China-Russia-Iran front against the Western front is now heating up, and the Middle East waters are playing an important part in this rivalry.”

Second, Israel-US-EU-NATO could conduct strikes against Iranian nuclear infrastructure. In this context it is important to recall the October 2024 retaliatory strikes by Israel against Iran.  According to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, “There is a specific component in their [Iran] nuclear programme that was hit in this attack.” The “specific component” has been clarified that “it destroyed sophisticated equipment used to design the plastic explosives that surround uranium in a nuclear device and are needed to detonate it.”

Third, a Russia-Iran-North Korea response against the US, NATO and new IP4 members (Japan, Korea, Australia and New Zealand) coalition. It is true that there are now multiple actors involved in Russia Ukraine war and the Ukrainian Ambassador to the United Kingdom has warned that it is fair to assume that “world war three has begun” given that his country is not only confronting Russia but also North Korean soldiers, and  Iranian missiles and drones are bombarding cities and killing Ukrainians.

 Security Dynamics in Arabian Sea

Nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs) have frequented the Indian Ocean during the Cold War and are now joined by the Chinese nuclear powered submarines which have been sighted in ports in Pakistan. During the Cold War, these nuclear platforms were deployed for deterrence between the NATO alliance and WARSAW pact countries, and in current times are being positioned against regional countries and their strategic partners. US, French and the British Navy may have deployed nuclear platforms in the Indian Ocean, particularly in the north Arabian Sea and may be targeting both Iran and Russia.

The presence of multiple nuclear-powered submarines lurking around in the Arabian Sea presents major nuclear security and safety challenge. It necessitates instituting robust risk and escalation reduction protocols as also address the possibility of accidental encounters. As far as safety is concerned, procedures to manage nuclear submarine rescue arrangements require attention.  As India build its SSBN fleet, the above issues will require greater attention by the naval planners in terms of operations as well as at the politico-diplomatic-strategic levels by the government to initiate dialogue with the US, UK and France to enhance mutual understanding.