As the Russia-Ukraine war reaches its 1000th day, both sides face mounting losses, escalating strategies, and international tension. With new missile deployments and nuclear threats, the conflict edges toward dangerous territory while potential peace negotiations remain uncertain and distant.

On 19 November 24, the Russia-Ukraine war entered its 1000 day. A war which was expected to last 2-3 weeks now seems poised to run into its third year. And inspite of President Zelensky’s boastful promise to, “Fight till complete victory, till the last Russian soldier is evicted from the last inch of Ukrainian soil,” it is apparent that it is Russia which holds the ascendency and has attained most of its military goals.

Russia has captured over 20% of prime Ukrainian territory, including the provinces of Luhansk Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson, which has provided it with a land bridge to Crimea and virtually cut-off Ukraine’s  access to the Black Sea. Its offensive in the Donbas is gathering momentum and it has captured 680 kms² in the last month alone. It is poised to capture the city of Pokrovsk, which will open the doorway for further advance, westwards – maybe even up to the line of the Dnieper River. Putin has stated that he will continue the war till all its military aims are attained – what that line would be, perhaps only he knows.

Ukraine now seems squarely on the backfoot. Its much publicised Kursk offensive has halted and it now holds an enclave just 10-12 kms deep inside Russian territory.  That too is under threat as Russia has amassed 59,000 troops – along with North Korean soldiers – to regain its lost areas and also has pushed ahead with its offensives in Kharkiv and Donbas. In the long war of attrition, Ukraine’s cities have been bombed, its infrastructure crippled; the military is exhausted and depleted, its manpower and materiel reserves are at the bottom of the barrel. On its own it can fight for just 45 days and is purely dependent on foreign aid to continue this war. Without external support, its war-waging capabilities will simply collapse.

But, on the eve of the 1000th day of the war, President Joe Biden granted Zelensky the permission to use long range US missiles to strike into Russian territory – something that had been staunchly denied for over two years. The very next day – the 1000th day of the war – Ukraine fired 6 ATACMS (Army Tactical Missile Systems) missiles into Russia. Five were reportedly shot down, but one slammed into an arms depot at Bryansk – 110 km deep within Russian territory. It was not a significant strike in the overall context of the war, and would have had only a localised impact. But the use of western supplied equipment into Russian territory holds the threat of rapid escalation and “a direct confrontation between Russia and the West”.

The Russian response came just two days later, when it fired its newly developed hypersonic ballistic missile ORESHNIK – meaning  Hazel tree- into Ukraine. The missile sped at five times the speed of sound, evaded air defences with ease and slammed into the Ukrainian town of Dnipro. The missile was tipped with six warheads – each carrying six sub-munitions that could hit 24 different targets. The ORESHNIK can carry nuclear warheads and it was the first time that its advanced nuclear capable missiles had been used in war. It was a demonstration of Russia’s capabilities, and more than anything else, a clear statement of intent.

Just a day earlier, Putin had also announced a change in Russia’s nuclear doctrine to state that any attack on Russia by a non-nuclear state (read Ukraine) carried out with the support of a nuclear state (read USA, UK, France) would be considered a joint attack, and Russia would be free to use nuclear weapons against it. It also brought out that any attack on Russian territory or its allies – nuclear or conventional- could invite nuclear retaliation. This implied that any Ukrainian counter attack to recapture their lost area – which Russia now claims as their own – or to follow up its attack in the Kursk region or strike any part of Russia, or even Belarus,  would leave it free to use nuclear weapons – not only against Ukraine, but against NATO targets as well. This marks a significant escalation of the war.

This carte blanche to permit Ukraine to fire western missiles into Russia, is just another case of “too little, too late.” It will amount to nothing and attain only limited tactical gains. Ukraine has just a few hundred ATACMS, Storm Shadow and French made SCALP missiles which will soon run out, if not replenished. With ranges of around 250-350 kilometres, they can strike value targets inside Russian territory. But while it can cause damage, its impact will only be at the local level and will not change the course of the war significantly. If anything, Russian retaliation on Ukrainian cities and infrastructure will only intensify, increasing the destruction.

But all this seems part of a ‘escalate to de-escalate’ strategy that is being followed by both sides. Both are weary of the war and want a way out. But it seems clear that Ukraine will not be able to attain its professed aim of recapturing its lost areas, and may be forced to accept a peace deal in which Russia gets to keep the territory it holds (like with Crimea in 2014); Ukraine abjures membership of NATO, but is provided security guarantee in return for a cessation of hostilities. This peace deal may be the most logical outcome and could be brokered after Trump comes into the White House in January 25.

But till then, both sides will continue actions to improve their  posture, and their position at the negotiating table. Russia, by its offensives in Donbas and Kharkiv, and Ukraine by its last ditch incursion into Kursk and its missile attacks into Russia. Hopefully, even this could lead to some kind of negotiations which could start next year. But till then, the senseless bloodletting will continue even as this needless war meanders into its third year.