Pakistan, with its strategic geographic location, youthful population (nearly 65% under the age of 30), and rich natural resources, stands on a fragile foundation. Despite its potential, the nation faces an interwoven crisis comprising political instability, economic challenges, social unrest, and security concerns. These issues collectively form a cycle of dysfunction, pushing Pakistan toward deeper turmoil.

As we get ready to publish this issue of the magazine, the latest reports emerging from Pakistan paint a dismal picture. The country is experiencing significant law and order challenges, marked by political unrest, civil disturbances, and security concerns. In late November 2024, Islamabad witnessed mass protests demanding the release of former Prime Minister Imran Khan, leading to clashes that resulted in multiple fatalities, including security personnel.

The government’s response involved deploying the military with shoot-on-sight orders and arresting nearly 1,000 demonstrators.

These events have intensified political tensions and raised concerns about human rights violations. Additionally, the World Justice Project’s Rule of Law Index 2024 ranked Pakistan 140th out of 142 countries in terms of order and security, highlighting issues such as crime control and protection from armed conflicts.  This combination of political instability and deteriorating security conditions underscores the urgent need for comprehensive reforms to restore public trust and maintain social order.

The devastating floods of 2022 exacerbated the crisis, inflicting $30 billion in damages and displacing millions. Agriculture, which contributes 19% to GDP, suffered massive losses, triggering food shortages and further inflation.

Political Instability

Pakistan’s political scenario, always a bit turbulent, faces instability of alarming levels due to recent developments. The ouster of former Prime Minister Imran Khan in April 2022 through a no-confidence vote plunged the country into deeper political chaos. This led to nationwide protests by Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) supporters, met with a severe government crackdown. Khan’s subsequent arrest and disqualification from contesting elections further fuelled polarization, with many accusing the ruling elite of eroding democratic norms.

The coalition government led by the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) and Pakistan Peoples’ Party (PPP) has been unable to stabilise the country. Allegations of corruption, nepotism, and inefficiency against the leadership have deepened public mistrust. Adding to the complexity is the military’s traditional role in Pakistan’s politics, which, though dominant for decades, is now openly questioned by both politicians and the public. This political instability has paralysed governance, delayed crucial policy reforms, and created an environment of uncertainty that discourages domestic and foreign investment.

Economic Challenges

Economically, Pakistan is teetering on the brink of collapse. As of 2023, the country’s foreign exchange reserves have plummeted to below $3 billion, barely enough to cover three weeks of imports. The government secured a $3 billion bailout from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), but the conditions imposed—such as subsidy cuts and increased taxes—have further strained an already burdened population. Inflation hit a record high of 38% in 2023, making Pakistan one of the most inflation-affected countries globally. Basic commodities like wheat and cooking oil have become unaffordable for millions. The Pakistani Rupee has lost over 50% of its value since 2021, making imports—including fuel and essential goods—prohibitively expensive. Youth unemployment stands at over 10%, with underemployment in rural areas much higher. The informal sector, which employs 72% of the workforce, has also shrunk under economic pressures. Pakistan’s total external debt reached $126 billion in 2023, leaving little room for fiscal manoeuvring.

The devastating floods of 2022 exacerbated the crisis, inflicting $30 billion in damages and displacing millions. Agriculture, which contributes 19% to GDP, suffered massive losses, triggering food shortages and further inflation.

Social Unrest

The economic and political crises have led to widespread social unrest. Mass protests and labour strikes are now routine, with citizens demanding relief from unaffordable living costs and poor governance. The wealth gap is growing, with the top 10% controlling over 60% of the nation’s wealth, while the lower and middle classes face increasing disenfranchisement. Religious minorities, Hindus in particular but including Christians and Shia Muslims face systemic discrimination and violence. Sectarianism remains a persistent issue, with attacks on places of worship and minority communities continuing unabated.

Youth Disillusionment. With over 25 million children out of school and a failing healthcare system, Pakistan’s youth are losing hope for a better future. The country ranks 147th out of 191 countries on the Human Development Index (HDI), reflecting its struggle to provide basic services like clean water, electricity, and quality education.

Women face particular challenges, including limited access to education, employment opportunities, and safety. According to the World Economic Forum’s Global Gender Gap Report 2023, Pakistan ranks 142nd out of 146 countries, highlighting the dire state of gender equality.

Internal Security Concerns

The resurgence of extremist groups, such as the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), poses a significant threat to Pakistan’s internal security. As per statistics available on the open sources, the last year saw a 51% increase in terrorist attacks compared to the previous year, with hotspots in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan. These attacks have targeted civilians, security forces, and infrastructure, further destabilizing the country.

The Balochistan insurgency, driven by separatism,  resource exploitation and political marginalisation has intensified. Separatist groups frequently attack Chinese workers and infrastructure associated with the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), straining Pakistan’s ties with its largest investor, China. Adding to the security challenges is the porous border with Afghanistan. The return of the Taliban in Afghanistan has emboldened extremist elements in Pakistan, complicating counterterrorism efforts.

Internal Security Concerns

Internal security remains a pressing issue in Pakistan. The resurgence of the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and other militant groups has heightened fears of terrorism. Attacks on civilians, security forces, and critical infrastructure have increased, particularly in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan provinces. These regions, already marginalized, are becoming hotbeds of insurgency and instability.

The porous border with Afghanistan adds to Pakistan’s security challenges. The Taliban’s return to power in Afghanistan has emboldened extremist elements in Pakistan, complicating efforts to maintain peace and stability. Adding to the security challenges is the porous border with Afghanistan. The return of the Taliban in Afghanistan has emboldened extremist elements in Pakistan, complicating counterterrorism efforts. Influx of Afghan refugees has strained resources and created social tensions in border areas.

External Influences

Pakistan’s geopolitical challenges are compounded by its strained relations with key allies and neighbours. Relations with India, its closest and largest neighbour, remain hostile. Tensions along the Line of Control (LoC) persist, and cross-border skirmishes persist. Pakistan’s relationship with the United States has been complicated, particularly after the withdrawal of U.S. forces from Afghanistan. While Pakistan remains a strategic player in the region, its growing alignment with China has created a rift with Western nations. At the same time, China’s patience is wearing thin due to delays and security issues affecting CPEC projects.

Importantly, the Gulf countries, traditionally a source of financial and geopolitical support, are now more focussed on diversifying their own economies with their own progressive agendas, while Pakistan appears to continue on the regressive path. Their aid to Pakistan has reduced considerably. This shifting geopolitical landscape leaves Pakistan with fewer reliable allies, further limiting its options.

To conclude, Pakistan is at a crossroads, facing a convergence of political, economic, social, and security crises. The road ahead is difficult, but with determination and resilience, the nation can pave the way for a brighter future.

Bangladesh’s Current Economic, Political, and Social Situation.

Is it headed the Pakistan Way?

Bangladesh, often hailed as a rising economic star in South Asia, now faces significant political, economic, and social challenges. The country, celebrated for its remarkable economic growth over the past two decades, finds itself at a critical juncture. Growing political unrest, economic headwinds, and the rise of radical Islamist forces in its polity have raised concerns about whether Bangladesh is following a trajectory similar to that of its troubled neighbour, Pakistan.

Political Landscape

The political environment in Bangladesh has undergone significant turmoil. Following Hasina’s departure, Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus was appointed as the head of an interim government tasked with steering the country toward new elections. This transitional period has exposed deep-seated political fractures, with various factions vying for influence and the interim administration striving to implement reforms, many of which appear to be regressive.

The present day Bangladesh faces a confluence of political upheaval, economic challenges, and social unrest. These issues have placed the nation at a critical juncture, necessitating comprehensive action to restore stability and foster sustainable development.

Economic Landscape

Economically, Bangladesh is grappling with significant challenges. The nation’s GDP growth decelerated to 6.1% in the first quarter of 2024, down from previous years. Inflation remains high, with the central bank reporting a point-to-point inflation rate of 9.72% in June 2024. It is progressively getting worse.

The garment industry, a cornerstone of the economy, has been adversely affected by rising living costs, leading to labour unrest and demands for higher wages.  Some of the customers have sought Indian garment makers  to replace Bangladesh. Additionally, the country is facing a significant current account deficit, currency devaluation, and dwindling foreign reserves, prompting a $4.7 billion bailout from the International Monetary Fund.

Social Dynamics

Socially, Bangladesh is experiencing heightened tensions, communal violence (read persecution of minorities) with jihadi elements clawing their way back into Bangladesh polity. The recent arrest of Hindu leader Krishna Das Prabhu on sedition charges led to violent clashes, resulting in the death of a Muslim lawyer and raising concerns about minority rights and communal harmony.

The interim government has faced criticism for its handling of such incidents, with calls for improved law and order. Furthermore, public dissatisfaction with the government’s efforts to control the prices of essential commodities has grown, with 44.7% of respondents in a recent survey expressing dissatisfaction. The growing influence of radical Islamist ideologies is altering the social fabric of Bangladesh. Groups like Hefazat-e-Islam have not only impacted politics but have also pushed for a conservative societal agenda. This is evident in their opposition to progressive policies, secular education reforms, and gender equality initiatives. The government’s concessions to such groups to maintain political stability have emboldened them further.

Rohingya Crisis. Bangladesh hosts over a million Rohingya refugees who fled persecution in Myanmar. The prolonged presence of refugees has created tensions with the local population, strained resources, and increased security risks, with fears of radicalization within refugee camps.

Is Bangladesh Headed the Pakistan Way?

Bangladesh and Pakistan’s trajectories have diverged significantly since Bangladesh’s independence in 1971. While Pakistan struggled with military dominance, economic mismanagement, and extremist ideologies, Bangladesh made notable progress in economic growth, human development, and governance. However, recent developments raise concerns that Bangladesh might replicate some of Pakistan’s pitfalls.

Rise of Islamist Forces. Like Pakistan, Bangladesh is witnessing the growing influence of radical Islamist groups. Their increasing clout in politics and society threatens to undermine the country’s secular foundations. If left unchecked, this could lead to the entrenchment of extremist ideologies, as seen in Pakistan.

Economic Vulnerabilities. Bangladesh’s economic challenges, including reliance on external aid, rising inequality, and inflation, mirror Pakistan’s struggles. However, Bangladesh has so far avoided the chronic mismanagement and systemic corruption that have plagued Pakistan’s economy.

Political Suppression. The erosion of democratic norms mirrors Pakistan’s history of political suppression and dynastic politics. A vibrant democracy is essential to prevent the monopolisation of power and ensure inclusive governance.

Security Risks The resurgence of radical groups, coupled with the Rohingya crisis, poses security risks similar to Pakistan’s internal security challenges. Proactive measures are needed to prevent these issues from spiralling out of control.

Conclusion

Bangladesh stands at a critical crossroads. While its achievements in economic growth and human development set it apart from Pakistan, the growing influence of radical Islamists, economic vulnerabilities, and political challenges raise concerns about its future trajectory. By strengthening democratic institutions, countering extremism, and fostering inclusive development, Bangladesh can overcome its current challenges and continue on its path to becoming a stable and prosperous nation. The lessons from Pakistan’s experiences should serve as a cautionary tale, guiding Bangladesh toward a more resilient and progressive future. As we concluded in our feature in the last issue, it is up to the people of Bangladesh to chart the course that they wish their country to follow, progressive or regressive.