Future warfare demands a shift from incremental thinking to disruptive innovation. Traditional military strategies, rooted in linear thought, are inadequate for modern battlefields shaped by AI, cyber warfare, and emerging technologies. Success will belong to those who challenge conventions and embrace radical change.

At a recent military seminar on future wars, a senior officer chaired the discussion. The toppic was a hotly debated technology that could revolutionize weapon carriage in warfare. What promised to be an exciting overview of the future, however, became a damp squib at the outset, when the chair began with a caution against overestimating its potential, asserting that manned weapon-carrying platforms were here to stay, while unmanned platforms would remain limited.

With this, the seminar—intended to explore the future of warfare-was effectively rendered obsolete. When military commanders restrict their thinking to the limitations of a disruptive technology rather than exploring its possibilities, they succumb to incrementalism instead of fostering innovation.

The Need for Disruptive Thinking

Wars cannot be fought with outdated technology—worse, when human thinking lags behind technological advancements, the true potential of innovation is never realised. Disruptive military thinking is crucial to reshaping battlefields as technology continuously evolves.

Throughout history, human progress has been driven not just by gradual improvements but by radical shifts in thinking. As a matter of fact, major breakthroughs have only come through disruptive thinking. This is not to deny however, that human cognition is naturally inclined towards linear, incremental thought processes. This may be what obtains normally, but it is squarely inadequate to meet the high-speed onset of challenges of the future. Military leaderships of today have to break free and cultivate the ability to think outside the box, challenge extant norms, and foster environments that encourage radical strategies and innovation.

A careful study of the changing geo-political environment around us reveals profound changes in progress. The Rules-based world-order is giving way to Power-based shenanigans. Russia’s aggression of Ukraine, China’s muscle-flexing in the South China sea, and more recently, American demand of taking over Greenland, all point to this tectonic shift. Europe is running scared, Southeast Asian nations are dreading Chinese hegemony, even as the rest of the world is watching nervously, and African Warlords and Dictators are relearning that ‘Might is Right’ after all. Economic considerations are becoming secondary to security concerns as nation states across the world begin to arm themselves with hard power. Resilience, not efficiency, is the new buzzword in the emerging world!

Dominance of hard power is an inescapable reality in this new international order. Hard power itself has transformed though. With technology at its core, the new battlefield is spread across multiple domains defying previously set boundaries. Cyber, AI, Quantum, Space technologies are progressing by leaps and bounds. Social media tools and disinformation campaigns are the preferred weapons to target large swathes of population and build an expedient narrative. Significantly, this has  also enabled power-transfer to some degree from the state to large corporations, and even to individuals. Such is the complexity of future battlefields that a single hacker can hold a nation state hostage with a cyber-attack.

Given these structural changes militaries of the future have got to be lithe, agile and nimble to deal with future war scenarios. What we have instead is typically large, inflexible and conformist organisations whose roles in the past demanded that they remain standardised. They still tend to build upon existing knowledge incrementally, following patterns of thought that prioritise small improvements rather than radical shifts. It makes them slower off the block in adopting changes. Worse, it robs its rank and file of the ability to think disruptively, which is not only an individual trait but is also shaped by the surrounding environment. Conformist cultures— and ours without a doubt is one – tend to suppress radical ideas, leading to intellectual stagnation and mediocrity.

While incremental thinking has its merits—ensuring stability and steady development—it also has significant limitations. It can create a mental framework that resists radical change and discourages risk-taking. When a soldier grows up with such an institutional mindset right from his young days, more likely than not, the conditioning of his mind, unbeknownst to him, resists risk-taking, making status-quo the primary option. As it happens, military appraisal and operational systems are rooted in compliance and conventionality, and reward unquestioned obedience, strengthening the incremental mindset further. To overcome the constraints of linear thinking, one must think outside the box. This means rejecting conventional wisdom, questioning assumptions, and embracing the uncertainty that comes with novel ideas. At the apex levels of the Armed Forces and the DRDO, just improving upon existing technologies will never be enough; they must be able to envision completely new paradigms.

A major barrier to disruptive thinking is cognitive inertia, the tendency of individuals and organisations to stick with familiar patterns. For example, before the rise of personal computers, the prevailing belief was that computing power should remain centralised in large institutions. It took visionaries like Steve Jobs and Bill Gates to challenge this notion and popularise the idea of a computer on every desk. Likewise, when Henry Ford revolutionised transportation with the assembly line, he famously remarked, “If I had asked people what they wanted, they would have said faster horses.” This illustrates the fundamental truth that true innovation often requires seeing beyond what is immediately imaginable to others. Cultivating disruptive thinking involves not just creativity but also courage. Many groundbreaking ideas initially face scepticism and resistance. Yet, history has consistently shown that those willing to defy convention and explore uncharted intellectual territory are the ones who drive civilization forward.

Given the speed with which new technologies are spawning every day, militaries need to respond deftly. They cannot change overnight, however, even though that is what is required. Disruptive thinking remains the first and the most critical element in the long military cycle of change. Military Commanders must be able to reimagine the future battlefields which are constantly being reshaped by new technologies.   Doctrinal shift, the intellectual foundation to fight, sits at the top of this change, which in turn would dictate a new organisational structure, training of personnel in the new concepts, development of weapon systems and evolution of suitable tactics in the battlefield. It’s a long cycle and conventional thought will not cut it; it has to be radical thinking.

Conventional battles involving large scale use of armour and infantry, close air support or aerial combat at close ranges might be receding into history. Consider the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war. The intense air defence environment has severely restricted the use of mighty Russian Air Force. Russian armour ran aground making easy targets for hand -held anti-tank weapons and suicide drones. Russian navy lost a third of its Black Sea fleet to sea-drone attacks. Logistics and resupplies are entirely being done by remotely controlled vehicles. Devoid of a credible Air Force, the Ukrainians rely extensively on unmanned aerial systems for ISR, close air support, electronic warfare and long-range attacks on Russian energy and infrastructure targets. In fact, alongside the Army and the Air Force, Ukraine has created a new Unmanned Force, which thrives almost entirely on Start Ups and other Ukrainian tech companies – now that is a stark example of Disruptive Thinking.

The tension between mass thinking and individual radical thought is not just a contemporary issue but a fundamental trait of civilization. Throughout history, all societies have tended to enforce collective thinking as a means of maintaining order and stability. However, Western civilizations have by and large been more permissive in individual liberty and free thought. Eastern civilizations have thrived more on group-think with a natural deference to authority. While Indus Valley civilisation by itself was relatively decentralised and not overtly ritualistic or hierarchical, later developments like the collectivism promoted by religion, caste and social hierarchy have had an impact on our thinking. British colonialism also reinforced mass-think with its education system and top-down administration that rewarded obedience and punished dissent.

Promoting Disruptive Thinking

To promote disruptive thinking, military training, right from the lowest course to the highest, must shift from passive learning to active inquiry. Instead of ‘what to think’, training should focus on ‘how to think’. This means encouraging curiosity, Socratic questioning, critical analysis, and creative problem-solving. Higher Command courses and NDC curriculum need to challenge conventional wisdom and serve as incubators for radical ideas, allowing officers to explore unconventional strategies and perspectives. Beyond formal education, lifelong learning and continuous exposure to new ideas are essential for maintaining a disruptive mindset. This will help break free from cognitive rigidity and embrace novel ways of thinking.

Disruptive thinking—challenging conventional strategies, reimagining battlefield tactics, and leveraging unexpected innovations—will be critical in determining military success in future. Most military strategies are based on historical precedents, refined through incremental improvements. Conventional warfare focuses on well-established doctrines, structured hierarchies, and predictable operational plans.

However, future wars will require even greater adaptability as traditional large-scale battles become less relevant and give way to undefined battle spaces and domains.

One of the most critical domains is cyber warfare. Unlike traditional military engagements, cyber warfare is invisible, instantaneous, and often waged by non-state actors. Machine learning algorithms will become potent and begin to predict enemy behaviour, conduct autonomous cyberattacks, and defend critical infrastructure. There will be massive Disinformation Campaigns. Nations will use deepfake technology, social media manipulation, and psychological warfare to weaken enemy morale. The rise of autonomous weapons systems, such as drones, robotic soldiers, and AI-controlled submarines will majorly influence future armed conflicts. Warfare will also become dispersed. Traditional command structures must give way to decentralized networks of AI-assisted decision-making, allowing for real-time, adaptive responses to emerging threats.

There are other challenges which are looming large on the horizon. Military doctrines, which assume human decision-makers at every level, may no longer apply when AI systems engage in combat at speeds beyond human comprehension. In AI vs AI warfare, where both sides deploy AI-controlled autonomous weapons, battles may unfold in ways that humans cannot predict or control. Military strategists must develop new forms of warfare that integrate AI while maintaining human oversight. Future wars are also likely to transcend all imaginable domains and there is a distinct possibility of seeing weapons in the fields of space, genetic engineering, neural augmentation of soldiers etc.

Victory in future conflicts will belong to those who challenge old doctrines, exploit new technologies, and anticipate enemy actions before they unfold. Linear thinking is obsolete—only disruptive minds will shape the battlefields of tomorrow.

Just as the most innovative generals in history defied conventional wisdom—whether it was Napoleon’s rapid manoeuvres, Sun Tzu’s psychological strategies, or the Pentagon’s shift to cyber warfare—tomorrow’s military leaders must be prepared to redefine warfare itself. The wars of the future will not be won through emotional battle cries or brute force alone, but through superior intelligence, adaptability, and the courage to challenge established norms. The ability to think disruptively will be more valuable than ever. While linear and incremental thinking serve important functions, they are insufficient for solving the complex challenges of future wars. Just as disruptive technologies have revolutionised industries, disruptive thinking has the power to reshape the world. The grey battlefields of the future will not belong to those who follow the well-trodden path but to those who are willing to envisage the entirely new ones with the mental agility to deal with them.

Wars, in a very perverse way, have found a way to evolve faster than conventional human thinking.  AI, at some point in the future, may become self-evolving and beat the human brain in many areas. Our hope to retain control rests on the power of imagination, ingenuity and our capacity for disruptive thinking.