Student quota protests erupted into nationwide violence, exposing Bangladesh’s layered power matrix—parties, Islamists and the Army—and forcing Sheikh Hasina’s flight. With China, the US and India circling, an interim order balances street anger, economic gains and a volatile, flood-prone geography.

While student’s agitation since June 2024, against the proposed quota in government employment were ongoing, the explosion of protests and ferocity of violence on 14 July, was startling. With students from Jahangir Nagar University, thousands rallied under the Vanguard, chanting the cry of ‘Ammi Razakar’, and clashed with opposing student groups. The resultant tumult spiralled out of control with the police proving inadequate. The Army had to step in but struggled, and with no let-up in frenzied intensity, the Army had to engineer a safe exit to India for the PM, Sheikh Haseena, on 06 Aug ’24, a date symbolically reconfigured to 36 July by the agitating thousands.

Bangladesh, political history is riddled with violence, agitation, coups, assassinations, and precipitate change of governments. Power is seldom centred in political authorities, without the coercive use of authority both State and Street. Over the years while there are seemingly two dominant political parties, the Awami League and the Bangladesh National Party (BNP), the reality is far more complex. A collection of several smaller political entities with distinct electorates and the Army, loom large on the Backgammon Board of Bangladesh power play. The nation has, alternated between Presidential and Parliamentary forms of government, Army dictatorships, and coalitions. Vocal, highly efficient and lethally effective on the margins have been the Islamist extremist groups, with the Jamaat E Islami being more visible.  Violent and vigorous movements, have been very successful over time, consequently the agitations of June /July 2024 are unsurprising. What is notable is the velocity of execution, and removal of the PM in less than a month.

While images of its birth in 1971/72, seem definitive, the psyche of this region is prepossessed by several separations. The first partition was a 1905 at the behest of the British, wherein populations of predominantly Muslim East Bengal and Hindu West Bengal were partitioned. The British hopes of acceptance, drowned in an explosive agitation. This activism gave birth to the Swadeshi Movement, Bengali Nationalism and was the forerunner of the Indian National Movement. There remained a significant population in East Bengal who were happy with the partition, and re-establishment of Dhakka as capital. The Colonial British were forced to reunify Bengal in 1911. A deep scar remained.

The next event was the partition of Burma from India in 1937. This resulted in movement of population, re-alignments, and forging of new identities. The official dateline to the Rohingya issue in Bangladesh saw its origin here. Rohingyas belonged to the independent coastal kingdom of Arakan (now Rakhine), and claim a mixed and eclectic origin. The Burmese leader U Saw classified them in 1940 as Indian Foreigners. The outlook of succeeding administrations, has not differed. Consequently, Rohingya refugees are spread over the world, with 1.1 million in Bangladesh, Cox’s Bazar and approx. 40,000 in India. Bangladesh is vehement about their return to Myanmar.

The outcomes of the Direct-Action Day 16 August 1946, and 1947 partition of India, resulted in a bloody, painful and traumatic partition of the region once again. Colonially manufactured East Pakistan borders, were similar to those of East Bengal in 1905. Bengali cultural foundations and Punjabi centralism, could not survive. We are familiar with the birth of Bangladesh, in 1971/72. All these events have left a deep mark in the psyche, attitudes, and perceptions of the Bangladeshi populace. Despite being firmly rooted in the Bengali language and culture, society has been deeply divided politically and in its approach to Islam.

Despite its tumultuous past Bangladesh on independence inspired by Sheikh Mujibur Rehman (Banga Bandhu), and the Awami League (AL founded 23 June 1949), chose for itself core values derived from its Declaration of Independence, Constitution, and Islam. The formulation was secular, socialist with democratic underpinnings fired of course by nationalism. There was stress on freedom from exploitation, rule of law, and fundamental human rights. The Islamic content, was taken largely from the ‘Governance of Medina’, which was practised by the Prophet (PBUM), and its essence was secular, inclusive, eclectic and progressive. But this path was not destined to be uneventful. The Army drew its DNA from the Pakistan Army, and in 1975 staged a Coup assassinating Sheikh Mujib.  Events led to Ziaur Rehman’s leadership and the establishment of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party, BNP the main opposition to the AL. In Sep 1978. Rehman’s assassination projected his wife Khaleda Zia into politics and she became the first female PM of Bangladesh in 1984. The BNP has always been close to China and intimate with Pakistan. This has been in contrast with the AL, which has been largely non-aligned, but close to India.

Despite political and social turbulence, Bangladesh has attained an enviable degree of socio-economic development. Averaging an impressive 6.4 % GDP for the period 2010 to 2023, Bangladesh achieved GDP of 7.9% in 2017 and 6.8% in 2019/20. Its GDP share of Agriculture is 23%, Industries 33.66% and Services 52.11%. In 2015, the World Bank classified Bangladesh as low middle income country, from the earlier lower income country. Life expectancy since independence has increased more than 1,1/2, maternal mortality dropped 4 times, and child mortality dropped 5 times. Self-sufficient in food, pharmaceuticals it has a vibrant diaspora with significant overseas remittances.

Geography is compelling, provided you recognise it. Sharing a 4095 km border with India, 193 km border with Myanmar and a 580 KM coastline, the country sits on the high waters of the Bay of Bengal. Bangladesh has a challenging geography.  While 80% of its soil is alluvial, approximately 10,000 km² are covered by water. An estimated 10% of the land mass would be lost with a rise in sea levels of 1 m. Classified climatically amongst the most vulnerable countries, it is prone to natural disasters at an alarming rate. Bangladesh is a linked part of the subcontinent with 54 rivers originating in India flowing into Bangladesh. It is the 7th most populous region of the world and the 3rd largest country with predominantly Muslim population.

I choose to begin with China in Bangladesh.  China was opposed to Bangladesh and prevented its membership to the UN till 1974. This transformed post assassination of Sheikh Mujeeb in 1975.  Very close relations with China followed and PM Khaleda Zia invited China to SAARC as an observer. China granted 97% Bangladesh products duty-free access in 2020 and extended loans for projects from nuclear plants to natural gas. It is seeking to develop a road from Kunming to Chittagong. In December 2024. China waved all tariffs on Bangladesh imports. There is a comprehensive partnership with China, which has enabled the Bangladesh Armed Forces to be almost fully equipped by the Chinese. Chinese FDI has been enormous in the period 2011 to 2019, (increase of 10.9 times). 700 Chinese companies contribute to up to 550,000 jobs in Bangladesh. China has also proposed the BCIM connectivity which is its Maritime Silk Route. China, riding the present anti India wave in Bangladesh has swallowed all the oxygen that was being breathed by India. From capture of medical tourism, establishment of nuclear plants to promises on the seaboard and Rohingya issue, China has all on offer. It is assessed, as a consequence of the latest loans, the total debt to China is US$12 billion; in contrast, the debt to India is approximately 1 billion USD.

Despite schizophrenic trends, with periods of unpleasantness, relations with India are of a comprehensive nature. From Space to Medical Tourism and cooperation on Terrorism, there is a wide spectrum of relations with Bangladesh directly. Being the second largest economy in South Asia, Indo-Bangladesh trade reached 15.9 billion $, in 2023. There have also been constant adversarial issues centred on minorities, movement across borders, illegals, water sharing, terrorism, etc. The Awami League Governments have traditionally been well disposed to India and regional initiatives have benefitted. On the contrary when the BNP was in power, their linkages to Pakistan and China as also hardened approach to minorities, has always strained relations with India.

The United States relations with Bengal date back to 1792, when the US established a presence in Fort William. In the tenure of Ziaur Rahman and Ershad, very close relations with the US prevailed. US has been a developmental partner since 1972 ranging from space to atomic energy. Today the US is the largest export market for Bangladesh, and provides maximum FDI. Its security interests have been ever present. Bangladesh has embraced the US concept of the Indo-Pacific security. The US also looks on Bangladesh as a peaceful, democratic, moderate, Muslim nation that was suitable to cooperate with. The recent US attitudes commence 2021 when they became increasingly critical of the decline of democracy, human rights abuses, and perceived threat on future conduct of free and fair elections. From 2021 to 2023, several divergences with the US emerged in which they imposed visa restrictions, levelled allegations and intensified the demands on human rights.  Prime Minister Sheikh Haseena, has indicated that she was under pressure from the US on several issues.  Developments prompted a Russian Spokesperson on 15 December 1923, alluding to the US precipitating an ‘Arab Spring’ in Bangladesh. There are also murmurs that the US sought a base on the Saint Martin Island, which was not accepted by the PM.

China riding the back of its belt and road initiative, BRI, announced in 2013, pitched itself for development of several ports in the Indian Ocean Region. Of the 17, where it has influence, 12 were being constructed and some are prime, deep sea ports. Almost at the same time as it pitched for Hambantota (Sri Lanka), and Kyaukpyu deep sea port in Myanmar, it sought to develop Sonada a deep-sea port in Bangladesh. As Hambantota progressed, Bangladesh reviewed its options. In 2017 Sri Lanka fell into the Chinese debt trap, over Hambantota. Influenced by this and other issues, Bangladesh opted to develop the Maheshkali Island mega economic and power initiative and linked Matarbari deep-sea port. The ambitious Maheshkhali project is in collaboration with several countries while the deep-sea port is being developed by Japan and India.

In 2023, India made the port of Sittwe, in Myanmar operational. This is part of the Kaladan Multimodal Project, jointly agreed by Myanmar and India. The entire functional rights of the port have been given to India, in contrast with Chabahar, Iran, where India has only two servicing docks. In contrast the Chinese deep-sea port at Kyaukpyu is incomplete, and at the centre of conflict between the Arakan Army, and Myanmar Forces (Tatmandaw).

Developments in the IOR, Bangladesh and Myanmar have now fuelled intense rivalry between China and US. The strategic value Bangladesh draws from its coastline is that it dominates the high waters of the Bay of Bengal, overlooks the Straits of Malacca, A&N Islands, and the Eastern Indian Seaboard.  It is a potential bridge between Southeast Asia, South Asia and the West. It’s central to the US model of Indo-Pacific, security and freedom of seas. This is in conflict with the Chinese view of its Maritime BRI. China seeks to dominate, the ports, the various sea channels that radiate from them, while doing itself the favour of bypassing the Malacca straits.

There is a similarity in the Arabian Sea, Pakistan Coast with a significant difference. The US is not short of bases in this region. Further, whenever its agenda is central, Pakistan has demonstrated, it will choose the US first. China has a long-term project as the CEPC terminating at the deep-sea port of Gwadar. This project however has yet to see fruition. What the US attitude will be once the Chinese get access to the Arabian high waters is yet to be seen, that event has not occurred.  This is in contrast to the dynamics in Bangladesh and Myanmar, where China is on the verge of establishing strategic presence and connectivity.

Bangladesh, presently is under an interim Caretaker Administration headed by Muhammad Yunis a Nobel laureate, and a double US Award winner. The Bangladesh High Court partially annulled Article 15 of the Constitution, giving legitimacy to the government. There is a profusion of political entities, each with their own convictions. A series of exclusions have denied the Awami League, political participation. The present mood on the Street is anti-Indian, anti Awami league. The BNP demands immediate elections; Citizens Party is asking for deeper reforms and the Jamaat is pursuing its extreme agendas in society as well as against minorities. Hindus, Christians, Ahmadiyyas, and other minorities are being targeted. Trade with China and Pakistan at the cost of India has picked up. The police is largely discredited and the Army has assumed police powers. There is an environment of socio-cultural anarchy. Ominously the Jamaat is gaining in the student elections in universities one by one.

On the dark side Bangladesh has nine known terrorist groups, 128 illegal syndicates and an assessed 400,000 illegal weapons. Drug and human trafficking is widely prevalent. Till the recent crisis we were working together on terrorism. An assessed 65% of the population is under 35 years of age. The hold of the interim government is tenuous. It is an explosive mix. To its credit so far, the Army and the Interim Government has not precipitated a major breakdown with India. Unfortunately, however gateways provided to Pakistan and China, cannot be ringfenced. Pakistan will use all dimentions to work hard on anti-India outcomes. It will endeavour to orchestrate anti India events. China will play the high game of dominance, and seek to outclass India in all domains, given its present opening.

The US also faces serious challenges. While their investment and development activities are critical, all else may not follow easily. Bangladesh interim leadership and the freshly elected Government when effective, face harsh realities. A set of decisions could lead to great progress in the region as well as excellent connectivity with ASEAN and SAARC. Another approach could let major contending powers into the geographic space, and risk destabilisation. Related to India the choice is to recognise the benefits of a cooperative geography or risk the promise of out of area entities.