China’s frequent intrusions into Taiwan’s airspace demonstrate its assertive stance on Taiwan’s sovereignty, heightening regional tensions. For India, this behavior signals the growing challenge posed by China in the Indo-Pacific, reinforcing the need for stronger alliances, enhanced maritime capabilities, and vigilance along its own contested borders with China, especially in Ladak.

Taiwan and China have a long-standing political dispute regarding Taiwan’s status as an independent country. China considers Taiwan as a part of its territory and has not ruled out use of force to bring it under its control, while Taiwan considers itself a sovereign state with its own government, military and economy. China has frequently conducted military drills and airspace violations near Taiwan, which has raised tensions between the two sides. These actions are viewed by Taiwan as provocative and a threat to its national security. The ongoing conflict gives a valuable insight into China’s strategy and Grey Zone Warfare tactics.

Historical Background & Current Status

Taiwan’s history dates back thousands of years, with evidence of Austronesian speaking peoples inhabiting the island as early as 3000 BCE. These indigenous communities developed distinct cultures and languages, forming the foundation of Taiwan’s diverse society. The relationship between Taiwan and China began during the Wu Dynasty (222–280 CE), when Chinese explorers and settlers first arrived on the island. However, it wasn’t until the Ming Dynasty (1368-1644) that Taiwan was formally incorporated into Chinese territory. Ming loyalists fled to Taiwan following the collapse of the dynasty. Taiwan remained a Qing territory until late 19th century, when it was ceded to Japan post first Sino-Japanese War in 1895.

Under Japanese rule, which lasted until the end of World War II in 1945, Taiwan underwent rapid modernisation and industrialisation. However, this period was also marked by cultural suppression and harsh colonial policies, leading to resentment among the Taiwanese population.

Following Japan’s defeat, Taiwan was returned to Chinese sovereignty under the terms of the Cairo Declaration and the Potsdam Declaration. However, the Chinese civil war between the Nationalist Kuomintang (KMT) and the Communist Party of China (CPC) prevented the reunification of Taiwan with the mainland. In 1949, as the CPC emerged victorious, KMT retreated to Taiwan and established the ROC government, maintaining its claim as the legitimate government of entire China, including the mainland. Taiwan became a bastion of anti-communism and received significant economic and military aid from the US during the Cold War era. Later, geopolitical shifts led to the normalisation of relations between China and the US. In 1979, the US recognised the PRC as the sole legal government of China, severing official ties with the ROC on Taiwan. This move significantly altered the international status of Taiwan and limited its diplomatic recognition on the global stage.

Current Status. In late 20th century, Taiwan underwent a transformation into a vibrant democracy. The end of martial law in 1987 and the first direct presidential elections in 1996 marked significant milestones in Taiwan’s democratisation process. Today, Taiwan enjoys political pluralism, freedom of expression and regular democratic elections. Despite its de-facto independence, Taiwan’s status remains a contentious issue in international politics. The PRC considers Taiwan an integral part of its territory and has not ruled out the use of force to achieve reunification. However, the majority of Taiwanese people identify themselves as Taiwanese rather than Chinese and support maintaining the status quo.

Taiwan’s Strengths

             Taiwan has abundant natural resources and consequently the largest producer of semiconductor chips.

             Strategic Location

             Taiwan’s geographical location in East Asia places it at a crossroads of regional trade routes, making it a crucial hub for maritime transportation and commerce.

             It is also the nearest island to the mainland China which provides a direct link to the First Island Chain which offers PLA an opportunity to project its power in the region.

             Its proximity to major economic powers such as China, Japan and South Korea enhances its strategic importance as a centre for regional trade and investment.

Taiwan Strait Crisis

The strained relationship between China and Taiwan can be attributed to the 160 km median line, that divides the Taiwan Strait equally. Initially established to prevent misunderstandings, the Median Line has become a source of disagreement between China and Taiwan over time and it has led to multiple conflicts in the strait.

First Taiwan Strait Crisis. In Aug 1954, China conducted artillery bombardments and naval blockades against islands controlled by Taiwan, escalating tensions in the Taiwan Strait, leading to increased military build-up in the region. Taiwan bolstered its military defences and sought international support to counter the China’s threats to its sovereignty. China also demanded the withdrawal of US forces from the region and asserted its claims over Taiwan as part of its territory. The crisis ended without a full-scale mil conflict, as both sides ultimately agreed to a ceasefire and return to the status quo ante. The US reaffirmed its commitment to Taiwan’s security and established a mutual defence treaty with the Taiwan.

Second Taiwan Strait Crisis. In August 1958, Chinese again launched a series of artillery bombardments and amphibious assaults against the islands controlled by Taiwan. US redeployed naval and air force in Taiwan Strait to deter further aggression by the China. The ROC mobilised its military forces and sought international diplomatic support to counter the PRC’s threats to its sovereignty. The PRC conducted artillery bombardments, naval blockades and amphibious assaults against islands controlled by the ROC, intensifying tensions in the Taiwan Strait. The crisis ended with a ceasefire and the withdrawal of forces from both sides, averting a full-scale mil conflict.

Third Taiwan Strait Crisis. In 1995, Taiwan’s President Lee Teng-hui visited the US, sparking protests from China and fears of Taiwanese independence. Taiwan sought to assert its international status and sovereignty, leading to tensions with the PRC over its political status. China conducted missile tests and military exercises in waters near Taiwan, including the firing of ballistic missiles into the Taiwan Strait, in a show of force and intimidation. China denounced Taiwan’s moves toward independence and threatened of military action if Taiwan refused to accept the “One China” principle. The crisis ended with a de-escalation of tensions and a return to the status quo ante, as both sides sought to avoid further mil conflict. The US reaffirmed its commitment to Taiwan’s security and continued to sell arms to Taiwan.

USA’s Interest in Taiwan

Semiconductor Manufacturing. Taiwan is a key global producer and technical hub for semiconductor manufacturing, which are critical components used in a wide range of electronic devices. Any potential threat to Taiwan could disrupt semiconductor supply, leading to a domino effect on the US electronics industry primarily.

Chinese Assertiveness. Chinese occupation of Taiwan would eventually lead to Chinese dominance in the region and potentially increase authoritarianism globally, thus US assists Taiwan to counter Chinse assertiveness in the region.

Safeguarding Core US Interests. The strategic location, economy and democratic status of Taiwan make it crucial to US’ interest in East Asia. Under the Taiwan Relations Act (1980), a bipartisan law, the US is obligated to assist in maintaining Taiwan’s ongoing security..

Air Intrusions by China

Air Defence Identification Zone (ADIZ) violations have become the most commonly employed tactics of “Grey Zone Warfare” on Taiwan. Three years’ worth of data suggests that Chinese air intrusions into Taiwan’s ADIZ have increased in frequency and scale, reflecting China’s growing military capability and assertiveness in the region. These intrusions often coincide with sensitive political events, such as Taiwan’s presidential elections or visits by foreign dignitaries. The air intrusions comprise of Missile intrusions, Drones intrusions as well as Spy balloons besides intrusion by aircrafts.

Intrusions by Aircrafts. 

Analysis of Intrusions. Chinese military aircrafts made a record number of 3800 intrusions into Taiwanese ADIZ in 2020. In 2021, reactionary violation days accounted for 8.8% of all days (240 days) when violations occurred. However, in 2022, there was a significant increase, with reactionary violations accounting for 20.5% of all violation days (268 days).

Mission Packaging for Intrusions by Aircrafts.    The mission package employed by PLAAF generally comprised of its combat aircrafts; thus employing fighter aircrafts besides Bombers, EW aircrafts and AWACS as Force multipliers. This indicates pre-emptive planning and preparation of PLAAF.

Intrusions by Missiles. Eastern Theatre Command of PLA carried out long-range, live-fire exercises and “precision strikes” on Eastern parts of the strait on 04 Aug 22. PLA fired 11 DF ballistic missiles into the waters off North Eastern and South Western Taiwan. Besides this, five Chinese ballistic missiles, launched as part of live-fire exercises, landed in Japan’s EEZ. The strategy of Chinese forces with regard to missile intrusions in Taiwan is multifaceted and reflects China’s broader military objective, regional security concerns and political goals.

Intrusions by Drones. Since 09 May 2022, there have been 250 UAV sorties (BZK-005 – 116, BZK-007-20, CH-4-30, Unspecified-20, TB 001-25, WZ-10 – 05, WZ-7 -34) in Taiwanese airspace. It has also been reported that 7.46% of total sorties conducting air intrusions have been UAV sorties. The strategy of Chinese forces with regard to drone intrusions in Taiwan is part of a broader approach aimed at exerting pressure, gathering intelligence and conducting recce operations in the Taiwan Strait.

• Intrusions by Spy Balloons. Spy balloons provide strategic intelligence to Chinese military and security agencies, including information on enemy deployment, military exercises and potential threats. Since Dec 23, 101 Spy Balloons (Dec 23-07, Jan 24-57, Feb 24-26, Mar 24-11) have violated Taiwanese airspace primarily as part of reactionary violations. This intelligence is used for strategic planning, threat assessment and decision-making at the highest levels of China’s military and political leadership.

Key Objectives of Air Intrusions

Recce, Intelligence, Surveillance and Target Acquisition (RISTA). Chinese RPAS equipped with sensors, cameras and other surveillance equipment are used to conduct recce and surveillance missions along Taiwan’s coastline, airspace and maritime borders. These drones gather real-time information on Taiwan’s military activities, infrastructure and defence, providing China with valuable intelligence for contingency planning and decision-making. By monitoring Taiwan’s military installations, training exercise and operational readiness, China seeks to gain insights into Taiwan’s defence posture and vulnerabilities, allowing for more effective targeting in event of a conflict.

• Anti-Access/Area Denial (A2/AD). China’s air intrusions are part of its broader A2/AD strategy aimed at restricting the ability of foreign military forces, particularly those of the US, to intervene in a potential conflict over Taiwan. By deploying ballistic and cruise missiles capability of targeting aircraft carriers, naval vessels and military bases in the region, China aims to deter or delay US intervention.
• Political Signalling. China’s air intrusions also serve as a form of political signalling, both domestically and internationally. Domestically, they reinforce the CCP’s narrative of national unity and territorial integrity, rallying public support for the government’s policies toward Taiwan besides sending message of resolve and assertiveness, signalling China’s determination to defend its core interests and challenge perceived threats.
• Psychological Operations, Deterrence and Coercion. China’s primary objective with air intrusions is to deter Taiwan from pursuing actions perceived as challenging its sovereignty, such as actions toward formal independence or closer ties with foreign powers besides undermining Taiwan’s morale, confidence and resolve. China seeks to instil fear, uncertainty and doubt among Taiwan’s leadership and populace, weakening their resistance and increasing pressure for accommodation and coerce Taiwan into acquiescing to its political demands.
• Testing Taiwan’s Response. Chinese air intrusions into Taiwan’s airspace also serve to test Taiwan’s Air Defence capability, response and readiness posture.

Implications for India

• Countering Chinese Assertiveness. India is seemingly engaged in strategic competition with China over influence and interests in the region. Chinese actions in the Taiwan Strait may be viewed as part of a broader plan of Chinese expansionism and assertiveness, leading to concerns about China’s intentions and actions closer to Indian borders necessitating India to strengthen its partnerships with regional partners, strengthening defence ties or adopting a more assertive posture in regional forums and multilateral org to counter Chinese influence while protecting own interests.
• Mitigating Security Concerns. Chinese air intrusions in Taiwan contribute to heightened tensions in the Indo Pacific. Over 50 submarines communication highways pass through Taiwan and Singapore. Thus, any conflict in Taiwan Strait would directly affect Indian communication system which indirectly impacts the security calculus of India. Increased militarisation and potential conflict scenarios in the Taiwan Strait prompts India to reassess own defence posture and alliances.
• Protecting Economic Interests. Approximately 40% of trade by volume flows through the SLOC in South China Sea to SE Asia. Chinese sea blockade and increased militarisation of Taiwan Strait will have ripple effects in the Indo-Pacific, consequently impacting trade routes, energy security, shipping industry and geopolitical alignments which would directly impact economic stability and development prospects of India. Over 70% semiconductor requirements of India is met through Taiwan and China, which shall also be directly affected by operations in Taiwan Strait.

Why China is Delaying Invasion of Taiwan ?

• Peaceful Reunification. The peaceful reunification involves diplomatic pressure from China over Taiwan to amicably accept the Chinese terms and join hands with China without any resistance. China has even offered ‘One nation Two system’ policy to Taiwan which has been rejected by the latter. However, China presumes that Taiwan may accept the offer owing to the diplomatic pressure and military actions undertaken by China.
• Forced Surrender. China has been using coercion and subversion to render Taiwan’s democratic government ineffective, however, Taiwan has been countering such efforts since beginning. Although China has not been completely successful in achieving its aim yet some effect can be seen on Taiwan’s resistance structure thereby giving a ray of hope to China.
• US Taiwan Alliance. Since US has been a closed ally to Taiwan, any full-fledged attack would involve US forces directly or indirectly in the conflict. Chinese forces might outnumber the Taiwanese forces but with US and Taiwan combined, it will be a herculean task for China and the victory cannot be guaranteed.
• Economic Compulsions. Chinese electronic industry is totally dependent on semiconductors provided by Taiwan. A full-fledged war with Taiwan will lead to disruption in supplies which would further lead to a major economic crisis in China that cannot be controlled or restricted.

In Conclusion

In 2013, China set up its own ADIZ to reinforce its territorial claims and later used it to gradually extend its operations into the ADIZs of other countries. These missions served four purposes: training pilots for long-range flights and encounters with foreign air forces, gathering intelligence on the military forces of Japan, South Korea and Taiwan, demonstrating air power to protect its territorial and security interests and exerting coercive pressure to undermine coalitions that resist Chinese influence in the region. China not only seeks to decouple security partners like Japan, South Korea and US from one another, but to also manipulate possible domestic political entities to its advantage. It should be expected that China will not only continue its ADIZ intrusions for the foreseeable future, but that China will escalate and deescalate its current intrusive operations in line with its own view of its regional security environment to both enhance its coercive leverage over its neighbours and to support its efforts to reconfigure the regional national security order.