In the race for air dominance, the unveiling of China’s sixth-generation fighters and India’s AMCA development marks a pivotal shift in military aviation. This article explores technological advancements, regional dynamics, and the strategic implications of emerging fifth and sixth-generation fighter jets, alongside the challenges faced by India in achieving air superiority.

China unveiled two sixth-generation fighter jets on December 26, 2024 in Chengdu, representing their next evolutionary leap based on two decades of R&D. The first, Chengdu J-36 is a large tri-jet tailless double-delta winged aircraft. The second, Shenyang J-50 featured a cranked arrow configuration with sharply swept lambda wings, two ventral intakes with diverterless supersonic inlet (DSI), and twin-engine bays. The medium size of the J-50 was speculated to be more suitable for operations on aircraft carriers.

Meanwhile, India’s Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA), the single-seat twin-engine, fifth-generation, multirole combat aircraft received approval from India’s Cabinet Committee on Security for the prototype development in March 2024. The stated timelines are for 2035 induction. Pakistan left the “cat-among-the-pigeons” when it announced plans to acquire 40 J-35 stealth fighters from China, marking the first export of Beijing’s fifth-generation jets to a foreign ally. It could mean induction by around 2029. That will change the entire air dominance dynamics in the sub-continent. This has generated a hot debate for India’s immediate options.

Attributes of a Fifth Generation Fighter

Most of current fighters around the world are fourth-generation with multirole configurations. These aircraft manouvre with ‘fast transients’ involving quick changes in speed, altitude, and direction. Have high thrust-weight ratios, digital fly-by-wire (FBW) flight controls, Full Authority Digital Engine Controls (FADEC) electronically manage power-plants, Active Electronically Scanned Array (AESA) radars gave multi-direction tracking and fire-control ability. Wide screen cockpit displays allow better situational awareness. Composite materials like bonded aluminium honeycomb structures and graphite epoxy laminate skins help reduce aircraft weight. A few ‘low-observable’ front-aspect stealth technologies were used in aircraft that were termed as 4.5 generation fighters. Eurofighter Typhoon, Dassault Rafale and Saab JAS 39 Gripen were in this category. The first real stealth designs were Lockheed F-117 Nighthawk attack aircraft in 1983 and the Northrop Grumman B-2 Spirit in 1989.

Starting with the Lockheed Martin/Boeing F-22 Raptor, fifth-generation fighters were designed from the start to operate in a network-centric combat environment, and to feature extremely low, all-aspect, multi-spectral signatures employing advanced materials and shaping techniques. The AESA radars with high-bandwidth low-probability of intercept, and IRST and other sensors are fused in for Situational Awareness (SA) and to constantly track all targets of interest around the aircraft’s 360 degree bubble. In addition to its high resistance to ECM, they could function as a “mini-AWACS”. Integrated electronic warfare system, integrated communications, navigation, and identification (CNI), centralized ‘vehicle health monitoring’, fibre-optic data-transmission, and stealth are important features. Manoeuvre performance was enhanced by thrust-vectoring. Super-cruise was inbuilt. Signature-reduction techniques include special shaping approaches, thermoplastic materials, extensive structural use of advanced composites, conformal sensors and weapons, heat-resistant coatings, low-observable wire meshes to cover intake and cooling vents, heat ablating tiles on the exhaust troughs and coating internal and external metal areas with radar-absorbent materials and paints. These aircraft are very expensive.

US Fifth and Sixth Generation Fighters

USA has around 170 Lockheed Martin/Boeing F-22 Raptor fifth-generation fighters which began inducting in 2005. The Second Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II is in service since 2015 with over 1,000 built. The timeframe for first-flight (15 December 2006) to service induction (31 July 2015) was less than ten years. The aircraft has three main variants: the conventional take-off and landing (CTOL) F-35A, the short take-off and vertical-landing (STOVL) F-35B, and the carrier variant (CV) catapult-assisted take-off but arrested recovery (CATOBAR) F-35C.

The aircraft is already being operated by 11 countries and nine more have ordered. As of July 2024, the average flyaway costs per plane was $82.5 million for the F-35A, $109 million for the F-35B, and $102.1 million for the F-35C. The production rate currently is 135 aircraft a year. USA itself plans to buy nearly 2450 aircraft.

On September 14, 2020, USA had revealed that they had secretly designed, built, and flown at least one prototype of its Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) fighter. There has been not much news ever since and clarity is expected only in mid-2025. Elon Musk who is now designated to be a co-head of Trump Administration’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) has aired reservations about manned fighters and may shift the emphasis of the NGAD more towards Manned-Unmanned Teaming (MUM-T).

Chinese Fifth-Generation Aircraft

China’s first fifth-generation stealth aircraft, the J-20 was unveiled in 2011, and over 300 have been built till date. The timeframe for first-flight (11 January 2011) to service induction (9 March 2017) was just over six years. China’s second fifth-generation fighter, the F-35 look-alike, J-35A was showcased when it flew during the China International Aviation and Aerospace Exhibition (Airshow) at Zhuhai on November 12, 2024. The first-flight of FC-31 was on 31 October 2012, 29 October 2021 for J-35, and 26 September 2023 for J-35A. After its initial flight, JC-31 was on low priority for funding, which resumed only after significant number of J-20 were inducted.

Russian Fifth-Generation Aircraft

Russia Sukhoi Su-57 ‘Felon’ evolved from the Indo-Russia Fifth Generation Fighter Aircraft (FGFA), contract for which was signed in October 2007. The FGFA itself had evolved from Russia’s the PAK FA. By 2014, however, the Indian Air Force (IAF) began voicing concerns over performance, cost, and work-share. India found that the aircraft does not meet its requirements and eventually left the partnership in 2018. Sukhoi continued to develop and promote the Su-57 for prospective export customers and marketed the aircraft during the 2019 Langkawi International Maritime and Aerospace Exhibition. The export variant, designated Su-57E, was officially unveiled at the MAKS-2019 air show on 28 August 2019.

The Su-57 first-flight in its original avtar took place on 29 January 2010. The first operational unit was formed in 2021. It is supposed to be a multi-role aircraft with significant air-to-air and ground attack capability. The aircraft were first reportedly used in the Syrian campaign in 2018. They have reportedly seen significant combat in Ukraine. Around 42 Su-57 have been produced till date. The Mikoyan PAK DP, also referred to as MiG-41, is a Russian program to develop a heavy stealth fighter to replace the Mikoyan MiG-31 which is still evolving. The Sukhoi Su-75 Checkmate, also designated as the Light Tactical Aircraft (LTA) is a single-engine, stealth fighter aircraft under development with planned induction around 2027.

Other Fifth Generation Aircraft

The KAI KF-21 “Boramae” is a South Korean-led fighter aircraft development program to produce an advanced multirole fighter for the South Korean and Indonesian air forces. The airframe uses stealth technology but carries weapons externally, and features such as internal bays will be introduced later with KF-21EX program. First-flight took place on 19 July 2022, and six prototypes have been built till date. Service introduction is planned in 2026.

Turkey’s Turkish Aerospace Industries (TAI) “Kaan”, under development with sub-contractor BAE Systems, made its maiden flight on 21 February 2024. Only one aircraft has been built presently and service induction is planned in 2030.

Other Fighter Programs

The Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP) is a multinational initiative led by the United Kingdom, Japan, and Italy to jointly develop a sixth-generation stealth fighter. In December 2023, the three governments signed a treaty to develop a common fighter jet, merging their previously separate sixth-generation projects such as the United Kingdom-led Tempest developed with Italy, and the Japanese Mitsubishi F-X.  Under the current timeline, the program expects to begin the formal development phase from 2025, with a demonstrator aircraft to fly in 2027, and production aircraft to begin entering service from 2035.

The Future Combat Air System (FCAS) is a European combat system of systems under development by Dassault Aviation, Airbus and Indra Sistemas. The FCAS will consist of a Next-Generation Weapon System (NGWS) as well as other air assets for the future operational battle-space. The NGWS’s components will be remote carrier vehicles (swarming drones) as well as a New Generation Fighter (NGF), a planned sixth-generation jet. It will replace France’s Rafale and Germany and Spain’s Typhoons. A test flight of a demonstrator is expected around 2027 and entry into service around 2040.

India’s AMCA

India’s fifth-generation Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA) will be a stealth, multirole, single-seat, twin-engine, air superiority fighter with ground-strike, Suppression of Enemy Air Defences (SEAD) and Electronic Warfare (EW) missions. Designed by Aeronautical Development Agency (ADA), it will be built by a public-private joint venture between ADA, Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL), and an Indian private company. The initial development cost is estimated to be around `15,000 crore (approx. $2 billion). In March 2024, the project received approval from India’s Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS) for the prototype development and mass production expected to begin by 2035.

The development of AMCA will take place in two phases, AMCA Mk-1 and AMCA Mk-2 which would majorly differ in the indigenous content and futuristic features. Mk-2 will focus more on stealth, EW, and futuristic pilot-AI interface. The AMCA Mk-2 will have DEWs and thrust-vectored engines with serrated nose pattern. Mk-2 will also incorporate sixth generation technologies. The aircraft will one day replace the Sukhoi Su-30MKI.

The AMCA design is optimised for low radar cross section and super-cruise capability. AMCA successfully completed its systems-level critical design review (CDR) in 2022. Metal cutting has already begun. DRDO expects to roll out the first prototype by 2027 and the first flight in 2029. The first three prototypes will carry out developmental flight trials, whereas the next two will focus on weapon trials. The prototypes will be rolled out at an interval of 8-9 months. Mass production of the aircraft is planned to start by 2035.

The IAF plan to procure at least 125 AMCA in Mark-1 and Mark-2 configurations. The Mark 2 of AMCA is expected to have a more powerful engine, sixth-generation features and technologies to stay relevant in the coming decades.

General Fighter Aircraft Technology Status India

Most parts of the airframe are being made in India. Some systems like aero-engine are still imported. There are some other avionics and airborne radar that are being made through joint-ventures with friendly foreign companies. The weapons are mostly being made in India. BrahMos is an Indo-Russian Joint-Venture. Sixth generation technologies are on drawing boards. It can be seen that India is finally coming of age in its fighter aircraft manufacturing eco-system. Indigenous aircraft are intended to provide the bulk of the manned tactical airpower of the IAF and the Indian Navy over the coming decades.

MoD High-Level Committee

Ministry of Defence (MoD) has just announced formation of a high-level committee to address shortages in the Indian Air Force (IAF). For some time, the IAF has been grappling with the shortages of fighter aircraft with the squadron strength coming to an all-time low of 30 vis-à-vis the authorised strength of 42. The committee headed by Defence Secretary will include senior ministry officials, Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) chairman Dr Samir V Kamat, and senior IAF Officers. It will look at the shortage of fighter jets, weapons, and other equipment and suggest solutions, including accelerating indigenous production, and selectively inviting foreign collaborations, amid growing security challenges from China, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. The report is expected in 2-3 months.

Does India Need an Interim 5th Generation Fighter?

India is one of the most threatened nations with two very significantly powerful nuclear-armed adversaries as its neighbours. With both of them, there are serious boundary disputes and India has fought wars. China plans to increase its J-20 production to 100 a year and targets to have 1,000 by 2030 when AMCA will be making its first flight. It will have 1500 by 2035 when India will optimistically induct the AMCA.

Pakistan is already talking to China to induct the J-35A by around 2029. Also around 200 Pakistani technicians and engineers are working with TAI on the Turkish 5th generation aircraft. A country with a failing economy might have a fifth-generation aircraft earlier than the country that will have the third-largest economy by then. That will be a shame.

There is a school of thought that India may be forced to acquire an interim imported fifth-generation aircraft. The choices are few. The Americans are currently not open to giving the F-35 because they have earlier refused their NATO ally Turkey, because like India, they had acquired the S-400 air defence system from Russia. S-400 reportedly has sensors that will be able to record F-35 electronic signature. Also USA prefers India to first buy a 4th generation aircraft in the MRFA competition before the F-35 can even be considered. Clearly it is a complex geo-politics at play. Indians are also wary about the much greater ability of USA to arm-twist and even leave a friend in the lurch if its own interests are at variance. USA may also want India to distance itself from Russia. But India can still use some back-channel consultations to get USA to sell around two squadrons of F-35.

The second option is to re-join, or acquire, two squadrons of the Su-57 aircraft. The aircraft is fast maturing. Has seen combat action in Syria and Ukraine. Production is still slow but increasing. But Russia is fighting a war. Their industry is geared up more towards that. Because of Western sanctions, there are issues related to payment. The balance of payments is becoming more adverse due to India’s higher oil imports. Lastly, IAF already has 60 percent of its fleet of Russian origin and therefore cannot increase that basket any more. The last choice is to join the FCAS or GCAP programs, but timelines for both are similar or worse than AMCA.

Way Ahead India – AMCA Must Succeed

As China’s air combat capabilities grow, regional powers such as Japan, South Korea, and India will have to invest more in their advanced fighter aircraft to maintain a credible deterrent against Chinese aggression. China is not only pulling ahead in aviation technology and capability, but the gap with India is fast becoming unbridgeable in the near future. China will have greater capability to penetrate Indian airspace without being detected.

Undoubtedly, the “Atmanirbharta” campaign will drive indigenisation. For India to be part of the big league, the AMCA must succeed. The aircraft needs to be developed concurrently with LCA Mk2 and must have dedicated separate team. A “whole of nation” vision and approach will be required. The private partner must be inducted quickly. A specially selected CEO may be designated. He be allowed to form a team. Spelling out clear end-states, timelines and regular path-line reviews would be important. Adequate funds must be made available. Buy technologies if required. Increase spend on R&D. The time to act is now, lest it is too late.