The ongoing Operation Sindoor, reminiscent of the scale of conflict witnessed during 1971, has once again brought Punjab’s pivotal role in India’s security into sharp focus. Historically, Punjab has stood as a formidable bulwark against invasions from the northwest. This legacy continued through the Indo-Pak conflicts of the past, where Punjab’s border became the frontline, witnessing fierce battles and demonstrating the resilience of its people. Hence, Punjab has the largest deployment of Armed Forces and is the only state with the maximum number of Corps Headquarters located inside or in close proximity. 54 years after the last major war, Punjab once again saw major offensive intrusions by Pakistan. Even as the The largest number of Pakistani drone and missile attacks have been directed towards Punjab’s airspace and civilian population, underscoring its continued vulnerability and strategic importance in the face of external aggression and India’s overall security calculus.

As in earlier Indo-Pak wars, this time again Punjab’s population saw maximum disruption in daily life as educational institutions remained closed, exams postponed, markets closed, businesses impacted, people confined to homes as black outs were all pervasive. In any future conflict with Pakistan this is likely to continue as being a frontline state, it would always be directly exposed to potential retaliatory actions, including artillery shelling, missile/drone attacks and infiltration attempts. Punjab’s airspace becomes a crucial battleground with increased risks of aerial engagements, drone intrusions and missile trajectories. And as in previous conflicts, Operation Sindoor saw an upswell of patriotism and willingness to sacrifice, amongst its populace.

The Strategic Importance of Punjab. Beyond its historical role as a battleground, Punjab holds immense strategic importance for India’s security architecture. Following J&K, it remains a prime target for Pakistan’s destabilising ambitions, seeking to exploit any vulnerability to undermine Indian sovereignty. Critically, the key lines of communication that sustain the military presence and civilian life in the strategically vital regions of J&K and Ladakh pass directly through Punjab. Any disruption or instability within the state would severely cripple the logistical lifeline to these sensitive northern territories. Furthermore, Punjab serves as the crucial conduit for vital river waters flowing to other states, making its stability essential for national water security. In light of India’s abrogation of the Indus Water Treaty as an response to the Pahalgam terrorist attack on civilians, this aspect is likely to be critical when viewed from the possibility of Pakistan’s reactions thereto. As the “food basket” of India, Punjab’s agricultural output is fundamental to the nation’s food security.  Adding to these concerns is the escalating issue of airspace violations, with Punjab being a frequent target for incursions by commercial Chinese manufactured drones from across the border carrying drugs and arms. In the light of the well-established Sino-Pak nexus aimed at degrading India’s standing, Punjab would undoubtedly be a key target, echoing the strategies employed during the era of Punjab terrorism.

Present Conditions in Punjab and Security Concerns. The present socio-economic conditions within Punjab should raise alarm bells for security planners. While historically prosperous, the state currently faces serious economic headwinds being debt ridden. The state, being predominantly dependent on agriculture, is seeing acute distress amongst its farmers, falling water tables, challenges in agricultural diversification, unemployment, major demographic changes and the pervasive issue of drug trafficking fuelled by Pakistan-smuggled narcotics. The attraction of easy money in the absence of meaningful employment and source of income, can create fertile ground for discontent and makes segments of the population susceptible to exploitation by anti-national elements seeking to sow discord. The possibility of seemingly innocent agitations in Punjab being exploited towards this end is omnipresent. These internal vulnerabilities, coupled with Punjab’s strategic location, necessitate a proactive and comprehensive security approach.

Pakistan’s next moves post-Operation Sindoor.Despite a comprehensive defeat and new security related paradigms spelt out by Prime Minister Modi, Pakistan’s pathological animosity towards India, implies that it will seek to hit back post Operation Sindoor. Pakistan, backed by China, is likely to intensify its asymmetric warfare with deniability build in, focusing on Punjab’s vulnerabilities. Expect escalated drone incursions, smuggling of weapons and drugs and propaganda to revive separatist sentiments. In light of the suspension of the Indus Water Treaty and its extremely adverse impact on Pakistan’s water and food security, some reactions should be expected. Pakistan has already stated that stoppage of river waters by India would be construed as an act of war. Asymmetric kinetic and non-kinetic attacks on Punjab’s dams, headworks, canal systems or power grids are probable. China’s role will likely remain behind the scenes, providing intelligence, technological assistance and diplomatic cover for Pakistan, while subtly encouraging these destabilizing activities in Punjab to keep India’s western flank engaged and divert resources from the increasingly contested northern borders.

Measures to Safeguard Punjab. To counter these threats and in light of Punjab’s centrality to India’s security, Central and State governments must adopt a bipartisan, multi-pronged strategy towards the state’s security and prosperity, irrespective of the political party in power in the Centre and State.

In the short term to medium term, border defenses need to be maintained by continued deployment of appropriate air defense systems, drones and sensors to block incursions and smuggling of narcotics and arms. Bolstering the counter-drone capabilities along the border is paramount, including the deployment of advanced detection and neutralization technologies. In light of the enhanced threat, a joint operations centre should be established including all stakeholders with enhanced surveillance through integrated sensor networks, increased patrolling and intelligence sharing between central and state agencies. Furthermore, strengthening the state’s police forces with specialized training and equipment to counter both terrorism and narcotics trafficking is essential. Strengthening the legal framework to effectively prosecute drug traffickers and terror operatives, while ensuring swift justice, will also act as a deterrent. Simultaneously, community engagement programs aimed at fostering social cohesion and countering radicalization narratives need to be intensified. Formulation of a comprehensive economic revitalization plan by creation of jobs, infrastructure and agricultural reforms to address debt and unemployment, can help address the socio-economic vulnerabilities. Sustained investment in Punjab’s economic diversification and social harmony is crucial to address the underlying vulnerabilities that adversaries seek to exploit.

In the medium to long term, a Special Status policy be promulgated for Punjab, being a Frontline State. This should include allocation of dedicated security and development funds for Punjab, recognizing its unique burden. Infrastructure protection be ensured by fortifying dams, waterworks/head works and canals against kinetic and non-kinetic attacks. Further, national consensus be forged towards a unified policy to prioritize Punjab’s stability as a security imperative, transcending political divides.

In essence, Op Sindoor has served to highlight the enduring strategic importance of Punjab and the states potential to be a key battle ground in any conflict between India and Pakistan or its northern neighbour.