Introduction

Just five days before Donald Trump’s inauguration and after a little more than 15 months of war, ceasefire in Gaza has been agreed to. The President-elect has been a major factor in facilitating this.

The deal, struck on 15 January in Doha, Qatar is essentially the same proposal that the outgoing American President, Joe Biden, extracted from Israel in May. It took eight months of mediation and the joint efforts of both old and new US administrations, alongside those of Egypt and Qatar, to get Israel and Hamas to commit.

The Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdul Rahman Al Thani said the agreement would come into effect on Sunday so long as it was approved by the Israeli cabinet.

President Biden has stated that; “this plan was developed and negotiated by my team and will be largely implemented by the incoming administration.” While President elect Trump said the “epic” agreement could have only happened as a result of his “historic” election victory.

The Deal

The deal, which is set to be begin on 19 January will last for 42 days, and entails the exchange of hostages detained by Hamas and Palestinians detained in Israeli prisons. Hamas and its allies still hold 94 people taken from Israel though about 34 are presumed to be dead. As part of the first phase of the deal, 33 hostages are expected to be released including female soldiers, children, the elderly and the sick in exchange for an undisclosed number of Palestinian prisoners.

Three female Israeli civilian hostages are expected to be released on the first day of the ceasefire agreed by Israel and Hamas, according to a document shared by senior Hamas official Bassem Naim.

On the seventh day, Hamas is set to release four more. Following that “Hamas will release three Israeli detainees every seven days, starting with women (civilians and soldiers),” the document states. “During the sixth week, Hamas will release all remaining detainees included in this stage, and in return, Israel will release the agreed upon number of Palestinian prisoners from Israeli prisons, based on lists provided by Hamas,” the document continues.

The second phase of the Agreement is expected to see a “permanent cessation of military and hostile operations” and the release of “all remaining Israeli male detainees who are alive (civilians and soldiers) in exchange for a number of prisoners in Israeli prisons and detainees in Israeli detention centres, and the complete withdrawal of Israeli forces from the Gaza Strip.”

The third phase of the agreement is expected to see the “exchange of all bodies/remains of the dead,” the document says. This phase will also see the start of a three- to five-year reconstruction plan for Gaza, according to the document.

The deal will also see the withdrawal of Israeli forces to the East away from densely populated areas of Gaza, displaced Palestinians will be allowed to begin returning to their homes. It will also facilitate travel of people wounded by Israeli attacks and sick people in order to receive treatment, as well as the positioning of Israeli forces across the Gaza border.

According to the terms, the Rafah border crossing connecting Gaza with Egypt is expected to be reopened. The deal also requires Israel to allow 600 truckloads of humanitarian aid each day into the shattered territory, half of which would be allocated to Northern Gaza.

US Qatar and Egypt, who also helped broker the deal and the United nations are the guarantors of the Agreement and would work together to ensure Israel and Hamas fulfilled their obligations. Hopefully this should be the last page of the war.

Reactions

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu thanked Donald Trump and Joe Biden for “advancing” the ceasefire agreement, but did not explicitly say whether he has accepted it, saying he would issue a formal response only “after the final details of the agreement, which are currently being worked on, are completed.”

Israel’s former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant on Wednesday welcomed the ceasefire and hostage release deal, saying that “national and security considerations prevailed over political interest” in a post on X.

European leaders have expressed hope that the first phase of the deal reached between Hamas and Israel on Wednesday could lead to prolonged peace. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said the deal “must now be implemented to the letter,” adding: “This ceasefire opens the door to a permanent end to the war and to the improvement of the poor humanitarian situation in Gaza.”

The Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun hoped “that relevant parties will take the ceasefire in Gaza as an opportunity to promote the easing of regional tensions”.

India has welcomed the deal and the MEA in a statement has said; “We welcome the announcement of the agreement for the release of hostages and a ceasefire in Gaza. We hope this will lead to a safe and sustained supply of humanitarian assistance to the people of Gaza. We have consistently called for release of all hostages, ceasefire, and return to a path of dialogue and diplomacy”.

While many Palestinians and Israeli hostages’ families celebrated the news, but there was no letup in the war on the ground in Gaza. The Hamas-run Civil Defence agency reported Israeli air strikes killed more than 20 people following the Qatari announcement. They included 12 people who were living in a residential block in the Sheikh Radwan neighbourhood of Gaza City.

Analysis

In every country sucked into the Israel-Gaza war – Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, Iran, Iraq and in Israel itself, the balance of forces has been changed by the war, but not irreversibly transformed.

That is true of Gaza itself, where even if a full ceasefire holds, the future remains deliberately clouded. Blinken implicitly criticised this in his Atlantic Council speech this week, when he said he recognised the need for Israel’s war, but could not support what may be its plan for peace.

Israel by broadening the war with intensified attacks on Hezbollah and Iranian targets changed its course and character. This eventually led to the annihilation of the Hezbollah leadership in Lebanon and then to the fall of Bashar al-Assad in Syria, is clearly discernible. Indeed, the weakening of Iran is probably the biggest regional impact of the war in Gaza.

But as Blinken had stated security for Israel, had to include a credible political horizon for the Palestinians, or else Hamas “or something equally abhorrent” will “grow back”. He said Israel “must abandon the myth they can carry out de facto annexation, without cost and consequence to Israel’s democracy, to its standing, to its security”. Yet, he complained, “Israel’s government has systematically undermined the capacity and legitimacy of the only viable alternative to Hamas: the Palestinian Authority”.

If Israel wanted the prize of greater security, he said, that lay through forging greater integration across the region, specifically through normalisation with Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia has condemned Israel for committing genocide in Gaza and will not normalise relations without a pathway to a Palestinian state.

While Trump’s return to the White House may have helped pressurise Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu into a ceasefire, but not to a particular peace. The incoming US President is unlikely to pick up Blinken’s plan for a reformed and UN-monitored Palestinian Authority (PA) to oversee governance of a unified Gaza and West Bank. Israel for its part will risk a bigger vacuum by acting on its commitment not to co-operate with UNRWA, the UN agency for the Palestinians, and other NGOs.

Unfortunately, there is a larger question that has not been addressed as has been brought out in lucid detail by Rashid Khiladi the Palestinian- American historian in his book ‘The Hundred Years’ War on Palestine’ is that “there are now two peoples in Palestine irrespective of how they came into being, and the conflict between them cannot be resolved as long as the national existence of each is denied by the other’.

Apparently, the sticking point in the deal was the fact that Hamas insistence that the deal must lead to a permanent end to war and Israeli withdrawal from Gaza. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said repeatedly that he is not willing to fully end the war until he has achieved “total victory” and the complete “destruction” of Hamas.

But did Trumps statement that ‘all hell will break out’ if Hamas does not release the hostages and the visit of his Middle East Envoy Steven Witkoff to Israel on 11 January break the deadlock and create a path forward.

More than 46,700 people have been killed in Gaza since then, according to the Hamas. Most of the 2.3 million population in Gaza has also been displaced, there is widespread destruction, and there are severe shortages of food, fuel, medicine and shelter due to a struggle to get aid to those in need.

What is urgently required as far as Gaza is concerned apart from bringing the hostilities to an end is humanitarian assistance. Egypt is “preparing to bring in the largest possible amount of aid to the Gaza Strip,” according to state media reports. Coordination was under way to “open the Palestinian Rafah crossing to allow the entry of international aid” into Gaza, Egyptian state media reported.

Conclusion

The Agreement should put a stop to the bloodshed, allow people to return to their homes, and get much-needed aid to more than a million people.  For the hostages and their families and for the people of Gaza it is no doubt a huge relief after so much unbearable pain and misery.

This cease-fire is essential and overdue. The sacrifice in the Gaza Conflict has been great, the misery so complete, and the ultimate future for Gaza so uncertain that few can claim with certainty that this was all worthwhile, or likely to benefit Israel’s security in the long term. There has also been a damage to Israel’s reputation as its image from a victim has been inverted in the minds of many. But it is too soon to say the war is over.

For the world lasting peace and stability in what is one of the most volatile regions in the world is important and this along with justice in the region will enable a new trajectory other than one of violence. The foundation may have been laid but it will take even harder work to ensure its implementation as well as   development and peace.