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India’s “Neighbourhood First” Policy Amidst Regional Instability

Sub Title : India’s neighbourhood is in in a constant state of turmoil, despite India’s best efforts as a good neighbour

Issues Details : Vol 18 Issue 3 Jul – Aug 2024

Author : Ajay Singh

Page No. : 51

Category : Geostrategy

: July 29, 2024

India’s “Neighbourhood First” policy is crucial to its foreign relations, yet its immediate neighbours are in flux. Political, social, and economic turmoil, along with growing Chinese influence, have strained ties. Understanding these complexities is vital for managing relationships and addressing the negative sentiment towards India.

 

Neighbourhood First

‘Neighbourhood First’ is almost an article of faith in India’s foreign policy. But while India has managed diverse relations across the globe – including a difficult balancing act between Russia and the USA – its relations with its immediate neighbours are in a bit of flux. Many of our neighbours are in a state of political, social and economic turmoil, whose turbulence affects India. Growing Chinese presence also leads to a dilution of Indian influence, and much ground has been lost because we have not reached out to our smaller neighbours adequately enough.

Each of the neighbouring countries seems to be beset by internal problems – political, economic and social. Some have been a result of their own making, others have been caused by global and regional events. Their internal churn impacts bilateral relations, prevents continuity in ties and also affects how India is perceived. Surprisingly, there is a groundswell of negative sentiment towards India, which has to be addressed. Understanding the complexities of the situation of each nation, will enable us to manage ties, break walls and mend bridges.

Pakistan – The Turmoil Continues

The conduct of general elections in Pakistan in February 24, led to a fragile coalition government of diverse parties like the PML (N), PPP, MQM, PML (Q) and other smaller parties, headed by Shehbaz Sharif. This brought a temporary respite after two years of political unrest, ever since Imran Khan’s government was removed in April 2022 and Imran and his supporters jailed in a slew of charges. His party – Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf – was also banned from contesting elections forcing their candidates to stand as independents. Surprisingly, they still won 108 seats.

Imran Khan still languishes in jail, despite being acquitted by the courts in some of the charges levied against him. Each absolved charge is merely replaced by another, as the Army seems determined to keep him out of the public eye. But even in jail, he still poses a challenge to the Army and the ruling government.

The entry of a new government has done little to end Pakistan’s social, economic and political churn. As always, the Army is back in its position of supremacy and calls the shots on everything from security, foreign affairs, finance and internal affairs. It has merely replaced one ‘selected’ Prime Minister with another who acts as the front as the country spirals downwards.

Pakistan’s political instability ensures that its slew of economic and domestic problems will only be compounded. Its GDP has inched up from negative growth to a meagre 2.4 % rate of growth. Inflation has cooled from 38% last year to around 12 % now. But it still means that a kilo of wheat costs Rs 102 per kilogram and petrol around Rs. 288 per litre, which makes even the basic commodities unaffordable to the man on the street. The economy is drained the $130 billion of external debt – almost 70% of its GDP – and it moves from bailout to bailout. But the nation is cash-strapped, it has not stopped the army from increasing its defence allocation by over 17.5 %, citing the usual ‘external and internal threats.’ With no structural and long-term changes being made,  its dole-dependent economy will continue sputtering along  – unless it takes the logical course of shunning terrorism and revamping ties with India.

And terrorism is on the rise in Pakistan itself. The Tehreek-e-Taliban, Pakistan, along with freedom fighters of the Baloch Liberation Army and other extremist groups have stepped up activities in Waziristan, Baluchistan, and even the interiors. Over 400 fatal militant actions have been recorded this year itself – almost one every day. A new operation – OP AZM-E-ISTEHKAM was launched by the Pakistani Army in June, but it remains to be seen how strongly they carry it out. After all, they had announced similar operations earlier which never really took off. In fact, ever since OP ZARB-E-AZB in 2014 – which clipped the TTP considerably – the Army seems almost hesitant in its actions to counter the menace of religious fundamentalism, that now threatens to swamp the nation.

The problem is compounded by its relations with the Taliban regime in Afghanistan. Since they stormed back into power in 2021, the Taliban have not been the grateful, dependent regime which Pakistan hoped to instal in Kabul. Rather, the Taliban have proved to be increasingly assertive and now seek to expand their footprint into Pakistan itself. They actively aid the TTP – who are affiliated to them in any case – and provide weapons, covering fire and sanctuary to its cadres, to carry out their actions inside Pakistan and flee back across the Durand Line into Afghanistan. In any case, the Taliban do not recognise the Durand Line, and for them Waziristan is merely part of Greater Pakhtoonistan. Any cross-border action by the Pakistani Army could be a dangerous misadventure and with Taliban support not forthcoming, actions against the TTP could well be futile. The actions of the TTP in Waziristan, and the BLA in Baluchistan have virtually stalled China’s CPEC ventures, and Pakistan’s western borders are more vulnerable than ever before.

All this has not prevented it from continuing its own nefarious activities in Kashmir. A spate of terrorist attacks has rocked Jammu in June-July, claiming a high toll of lives. The focus of terrorist action seems to have shifted from the valley towards the thinly manned Jammu sector and indicators all point to Pakistani involvement. Perhaps another strong Indian response could well be in order. Activating Pakistan’s Eastern borders could stretch their forces completely, make their internal situation even more precarious and perhaps even bring the house down.

Bangladesh- Roiled in Protest

Over the past month, Bangladesh has been roiled in nationwide protests that killed over 120 people, brought the army out to quell protestors and led to a nation-wide clampdown. These protests – largely by the youth – were due to the introduction of a bill that reserves 30% of the government jobs for families of the freedom fighters of 1971. The move was seen as favouring members of Sheikh Hasina’s Awami League, and ill-advised statements by the government did not help matters. Bangladesh protests dwindled after a Supreme Court order reduced the reservation to just 5%, (with an additional 2% for minorities and people with disabilities) but  is indicative of the deep divide in Bangladesh politics and also the extent of the economic and social problems churning the nation.

Sheikh Hasina secured  a fourth term in power in January 24, when her Awami League Party secured 225 of the 300 parliamentary seats  in a controversial elections. These elections were largely denounced as a sham since the main opposition parties – including the Bangladesh Nationalist Party, headed by her beta noir, Begum Khaleda Zia – boycotted the polls and the turnout was a meagre 40 %. In fact, the USA began imposing restrictions on Bangladesh, citing that its election process was flawed and undemocratic. This was a shocking example of duplicity, since the USA allowed and encouraged the Pakistani army in its own sham elections.

Hasina’s has provided stability and continuity and India will be happy to see her back in the chair. She has respected India’s security concerns, clamped down on fundamentalists and maintained a fine balance with China. In her last tenure, the Bangladesh economy was booming and grew at  8.1% in 2018-19, even surpassing India’s rate of growth. Its per capita income had doubled and more than 25 million people were lifted out of poverty. Yet its economy unexpectedly slowed to a crawl in 2022, with the Covid pandemic and global shutdown. The resultant slowdown led to an economic crisis that forced it to approach the IMF for a $4.7 Billion bailout loan. As with all IMF loans, it came with severe conditions that forced the government to make unpopular decisions, leading to inflation and public anger. The economy is now sputtering at 3.7%,  inflation has risen to 10%, unemployment has risen among the youth, and the resulting anger has spilled over in the streets.

Bangladesh has had to manage a delicate balancing act between its two giant neighbours – India and China. India shares traditional and cultural ties with them, but China is its largest trading partner, albeit with a massive trade deficient. China exports almost 25 times the value of goods that it imports from Bangladesh. Under the BRI project, China has provided Bangladesh with over $40 Billion of investments, (the largest after Pakistan) including seven railway projects, 12 highways, 21 bridges, 31 power stations and others. But the Chinese embrace has dangers as Sri Lanka and Pakistan have discovered. Bangladesh was forced to approach Beijing for a soft loan of $5 Billion to bail them out of the present economic impasse. But during Sheikh Hasina’s recent visit to Beijing, the debt-restructuring she requested was refused and she was offered only around $100 million instead of the promised $5 Billion. Nor was adequate courtesy and protocol followed, and she reportedly cut short her visit by a day.

Fortunately, in spite of Chinese inroads, Sheikh Hasina has remained sensitive of India’s security concerns. But as her own government stutters, she is seen as being a pro-India personality. The ground swell of public anger against her policies are reflecting on India as well. Unfortunately, a “India Out” movement has gained traction in Bangladesh, just as it did in Maldives. It is important that India recognises this undercurrent, but still continues to support Sheikh Hasina and Bangladesh to help tide over the present turbulence. This would ensure that our relations remain on an even keel, even in the future.

Nepal’s Political Musical Chairs

Nepal’s never ending political churn took another turn when the coalition government of Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal – or Prachanda as he is commonly known –was toppled when Sher Bahadur Deuba of the Nepali Congress, pulled out support and joined ranks with K P Sharma Oli’s Communist Party of Nepal. In the newest development, Oli took over as the Prime Minister (for the fourth time) – a position he will hold for two years till 2025, and then hand over the chair to Deuba for the next two years of the government’s tenure. It is a half-baked power sharing arrangement, reeking of political opportunism, and a recipe for continual political instability in the mountain nation.

Ever since Nepal abolished the monarchy in 2008, its political process has been characterised by the frequent breaking and remaking of coalitions. The game of musical chairs has led Nepal to 14 Prime Minister in 16 years. Such is the dissatisfaction with the unprincipled political processes that ordinary citizens have taken to the streets in protest, asking for a return to monarchy.

Nepal’s political instability has not only wreaked havoc within the country, it has also impacted ties with India. Time-tested ties were severely stretched when India imposed a horrendous blockade in 2015 in retaliation for Nepal’s discriminatory draft constitution. More than the humanitarian and economic costs, were the long term consequences of Indo-Nepal ties. It led Nepal to tilt towards China, and created an anti-India sentiment that exists even today.

Ties were further frayed during Oli’s earlier term as Prime Minister with the issue of currency notes showing a map of Nepal which included a 372 square km swath of land in the disputed areas of Kalapani-Lipulekh-Limpiadhura as part of their territory. Prachanda, in his tenure as PM had helped restore the fracture and his ouster is not be good news for India. KP Oli’s Communist Party of Nepal (Marxist-Lenin) is ideologically aligned to China and in his previous tenure had veered strongly towards them. But, it is hoped that Oli will continue the reset process of Indo-Nepal ties that had been on the mend by the visit of Prime Minister Modi to Nepal in May 22. China had moved in rapidly with a large cheque book when Indian- Nepal ties were strained, but India is culturally, geographically and economically closer to it. Nepal is dependent on India in many ways, but we need to shed our big brother image and be more sensitive of its concerns. The ill-conceived Agniveer scheme has also prevented Nepali Gorkhas from signing up for recruitment for fears of its four-year-term and lack of job security–and that is a major issue that needs to be addressed. It is up to India to reset traditional ties, integrate the Nepali economy with the region, and display grace and generosity expected of a much larger neighbour. Else, China will be more than willing to enter into the drift.

Sri Lanka, Maldives and Myanmar

One of the setbacks of Indian diplomacy was the manner in which Indo-Maldives relations had gone rapidly downhill in recent times. President Mohammed Muizzu came into power in 2023, largely on the slogan, “India Out.” His incumbent Ibrahim Mohammed Solih had followed the traditional  ‘India-first’ policy and aimed to strengthen ties. His departure saw the rise of a strong pro-China and anti-India sentiment, which Muizzu highlighted by making his first official visit to Beijing, instead of New Delhi.

Both India and China vie for influence in this strategically important island nation on the crucial sea-lanes of the Indian Ocean. Maldives had joined China’s BRI and received considerable largesse such as the upgrade of Male International Airport, the China-Maldives Friendship Bridge, and other projects. For a cost, of course. Male now owes China $1.4 Billion, which is 20 % of its public debt.

While seeking a balance with China is entirely understandable, ties with India were tested when Maldives insisted on the departure of 90 defence personal based in the Maldives to operate aircraft donated by India for humanitarian and disaster assistance. This was a direct snub. Eventually, these military persons were replaced by civilian employees of HAL, but it had not entirely alleviated the strain.

Things worsened when three Maldivian deputy ministers made derogatory and racist remarks about Prime Minister Modi during his visit to Lakshadweep. This prompted a strong Indian response with Indians boycotting Maldives tourism – its main source of income. The angry response forced the Maldivian government to apologise and highlighted their dependence on India. In fact, Muizzu followed up by stating that India was its closest ally, and would continue to remain so. Even as China continues to make inroads with its large cheque book and infrastructure projects, India’s traditional ties and geographical proximity gives it greater leverage. This should be utilised to wean back the island nation into the Indian fold with a mixture of grace and assertion.

The Maldives has to only turn to neighbouring Sri Lanka to realise how Chinese dependence can erode a country. President Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s courting by the Chinese led him to accept massive investments in unviable projects such as the Hambantota port, refinery and airport, the Colombo Port City project and others which racked up a debt of over $46 Billion dollars – over14% of Sri Lanka’s GDP – which proved impossible to sustain. The resultant economic crisis that has been brewing in the island since 2019 finally erupted in 2022. With prices skyrocketing, supplies and fuel in short supply, unemployment and discontentment, people took to the streets in a movement called ‘Aragalaya’ – the struggle. They occupied the presidential palace, forced President Rajapaksa to flee the country and made his home-grown cabinet resign. A new government under Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe took over, whose policies have helped alleviate the crisis somewhat.

India provided  $4 billion in aid, helped restructure its loans, and provided much-needed shipments of grain and fuel in that time of crisis. That action was warmly received. With the growing groundswell of pro-Indian sentiment, Sri Lanka can be more aligned to India’s security interests, while India could provide economic assistance and investments to revamp its economy. It could even integrate it as part of its own much larger economy for regional development and inclusive growth.

But while Sri Lanka is slowly recovering lost ground, Myanmar is slipping deeper into the abyss. Myanmar has been in a state of chaos since 2020, when the Tatmadaw arrested Ms Aung San Suu Kyi after her party won a landslide election victory, dissolved the government and took over power. They miscalculated the resistance. The Movement for Restoration of Democracy got together under the banner of the Peoples Defence Forces, which attracted thousands of youths and got together a plethora of armed militia groups, like Arakan Army, Karen National Union, Myanmar Democratic Alliance Army and other ethnic armed groups. They have waged a civil war for almost four years now and pushed the army back from most of the border areas and villages. The civil war has wrecked the democratic process, pushed the hermit kingdom back into isolation, hampered development by decades and created millions of refugees.

That is bad news for the neighbours. They have added to the Rohingya refugees who have already swamped Thailand, Bangladesh and India. The internal turmoil draws in China. It also hampers Indian plans for road connectivity through Myanmar into South East Asia. The Myanmar Army has faced a series of reverses, but that would make them clamp down even harder, and fragment the nation along ethnic lines.

Conclusion

The turmoil in the neighbourhood offers both opportunities and perils for India. India’s political and economic stability can help the neighbours. We can even integrate them in the regional economy by enhancing connectivity through open land and maritime routes, incorporate a regional currency through the Unified Payment Interface, and develop infrastructure projects. SAARC has fortunately died a natural death, but regional initiatives like BIMSTEC should be followed up, along with bilateral ties. We must also be careful of the fact that rising instability  provides fertile ground for fundamentalism, and encourages the rise of anti-India sentiment as seen in Maldives, Nepal and Bangladesh.

If India is to firmly follow the Neighbourhood First policy, we must adopt a gracious and generous attitude, not an overly assertive or overbearing one. India has been accused of bullying – perhaps with some justification – and that image has to be reversed. It is in our interest that the neighbours remain stable and prosperous and grow with us. That will cement our own position as the security and economic fulcrum of the region.