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NATO’s Strategic Pivot to the Indo-Pacific: Strengthening Alliances and Expanding Deterrence with the AP4

Sub Title : Countries in the Asia - Pacific which support NATO form its strategic pivot

Issues Details : Vol 18 Issue 4 Sep – Oct 2024

Author : Dr Vijay Sakhuja, Former Director, National Maritime Foundation

Page No. : 44

Category : Geostrategy

: October 8, 2024

NATO and the AP4 countries (Japan, South Korea, Australia, and New Zealand) are strengthening ties to link Euro-Atlantic and Indo-Pacific security, engaging in joint naval and air exercises to address shared challenges in an increasingly complex geopolitical landscape.

 This collaboration marks a significant shift in global defence dynamics, potentially deterring adversarial actions and fostering stronger international alliances.

It is now common for some NATO Member States to dispatch their navies and air forces to the Indo Pacific region for port calls, and exercises. The chief of staff of the German Air Force Lt. Gen. Ingo Gerhartz recently remarked that “we as Europeans are showing presence in a part of the world that is of great importance to all of us. We will deploy to the Indo-Pacific region together with Spain and France and take part in five different exercises,” The German Air Force engagements is also under Exercise Pitch Black 24 , an exercise hosted by Australian Air Force.  According to a Spanish military official, “The deployment of the air forces of these three countries (France, Germany and Spain), together or even autonomously, sends a message of our commitment in the Indo-Pacific framework.”

A large and diverse assortment of aircraft is taking part in Exercise Pitch Black 24 and include Eurofighters and A330 MRTTs from the UK, Eurofighters from Italy, A330 MRTTs from Singapore and Australia, Indian Su-30s, US F22s, Thai Gripen and Indonesian F16s. The above fighter aircraft deployment is also an indicator of growing engagement by both NATO and non-NATO countries in the Indo-Pacific region.

Individually Tailored Partnership Programme (ITPP)

The NATO member countries are engaging four Indo Pacific countries i.e. Japan, Republic of Korea, Australia, New Zealand, collectively labelled as the IP4, under the 2021 Individually Tailored Partnership Programme (ITPP) an “overarching framework for NATO’s cooperation with individual partner countries”. It envisages “One Partner, One Plan” concept, and frames NATO’s cooperation with individual partners that are seeking to deepen their relationship with the Alliance and is “tailored to each partner’s specific objectives for its relations with NATO through the consideration of strategic objectives for cooperation (ends), partnership goals (ways) and supporting activities (means)”.

TheAP4 countries formally joined the Alliance in July 2024 during the commemoration Summit to celebrate the 75th year of the founding of the NATO.  The NATO firmly believes that the IP4 can add value to NATO’s policy discussions on “common global security challenges, such as cyber defence, resilience, technology, and the security implications of climate change, maritime security and arms control”.

Incentives for AP4 to join the NATO

There are at least three incentives for the AP4 countries to join the NATO. First, the Chinese rapid advancements in military hardware and aggressive posturing in the South China Sea. The ongoing operations by the Chinese navy, coast guard and maritime militia against the Philippines maritime forces are a reflection of the Chinese coercive intent in the region. This pushed the Philippine government to intensify military cooperation with the US and its allies. Closely associated is the military infrastructure being built by China on disputed islands in the South China Sea. These have enhanced the ability of the Chinese navy and the air force to operate well away from the mainland prompting regional countries to enhance defence spending and undertake military modernisation.

Second, the 2024 Russia-North Korea Treaty on Comprehensive Strategic Partnership has not only changed the regional security environment but added a new dynamics in the region prompting these countries to focus on building deterrent capabilities through capacity building and security agreements-partnerships. Pyongyang “denounced” and rejected the July 2024 joint declaration of the NATO summit which accused it of “fueling Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine,” by “providing direct military support”. The North Korean foreign ministry spokesperson has been quoted saying that NATO and the US “incites new Cold War and military confrontation on a global scale,” which requires “a new force and mode of counteraction.”

Third, the frequency of joint military exercises between the Chinese and Russian Navy have not only increased but are being conducted in the South China Sea and closer to the US. For instance in July 2024, the two sides conducted the joint exercise coded “Exercise Joint Sea-2024” in the South China Sea and their fourth joint maritime patrol was held in the western and northern parts of the Pacific Ocean. Similarly, Russian air force Tu-95MS strategic missile carriers and the Chinese air force’s Xian H-6 strategic bombers carried out an aerial patrol over the Chukchi and Bering Seas and the northern Pacific Ocean. According to media reports, China spent $15 billion on military exercises in the Western Pacific in 2023.

ITPP for AP4

These developments are significant for the AP4 countries to join the NATO. Japan signed the ITPP in July 2023 and their “practical cooperation is being developed in a wide range of areas, including cyber defence, maritime security, humanitarian assistance and disaster relief, non-proliferation, science and technology, human security, and Women, Peace and Security”.  Japan has also expanded the geographic scope of its engagements with the NATO. In August 2024 its warships conducted exercises with the Standing NATO Mine Countermeasures Group 2 (SNMCMG2) in the Eastern Mediterranean.  It has also set up classified information sharing system with NATO and cooperation in the cyber field, as well as dispatch personnel to the NATO Strategic Communications Centre of Excellence (NATO StratCom COE).

NATO’s engagement with Republic of Korea under the ITPP dates back to 2012, and in 2022 both sides announced a formal partnership. In 2023, the ITPP was upgraded, and the new document of cooperation included cooperation in multiples domains such as “counterterrorism, disarmament and nonproliferation, emerging technologies, cyber security and public diplomacy”. In 2022, Korean defense companies exported tanks, self-propelled howitzers and light attack fighters to Poland valued at US$ 23 billion and in 2023 South Korea emerged as “larger supplier of artillery ammunition for Ukraine than all European nations combined.”

The NATO-Australia ITPP has been built over two decades and in the past it contributed to NATO-led operations in Afghanistan under Operation Highroad. The Australian ITPP includes “military interoperability developed through joint operations in Afghanistan, capability development and scientific research, and on enhanced dialogue and consultation on issues such as women, peace and security, resilience, arms control, disarmament and non-proliferation, emerging and disruptive technologies, space and cyber defence”.

The focus of the New Zealand ITPP is on “policy consultations, joint training and exercises, personnel development and exchanges, and cooperation on research”. There are six Partnership Goals during ITPP 2024-2027; Dialogue and Consultation; Operations Preparation and Training; Public Diplomacy; Emerging and Disruptive Technologies; Cyber Defence; and Climate Change and Security.

Russia and China

Russia and China are in the crosshair, and NATO’s  Strategic Concept pointedly targets Russia‘s “aggressive actions against its neighbours and the wider transatlantic community”. China’s “stated ambitions and coercive policies” are identified as the source of “systemic challenges” for the alliance. Also, “the deepening strategic partnership between the People’s Republic of China and the Russian Federation and their mutually reinforcing attempts to undercut the rules-based international order run counter to our values and interests.”

NATO is planning to hold “Steadfast Defender”, the biggest military exercise since the Cold War on the territory of Germany, Poland, and the Baltic countries. It will include 500 and 700 air combat missions, more than 50 ships, and about 41,000 troops. The exercises are modelled to repel a Russian attack against a member of the NATO.

According to NATO, “The Indo-Pacific is important for the Alliance, given that developments in that region can directly affect Euro-Atlantic security.” It is quite natural for China to react to the emerging NATO-AP4 partnership. According to Chinese expert, “by pulling NATO into the Asia-Pacific region to engage in geopolitical competition against China, the US is likely to adopt a strategy of ‘gathering allies to confront opponents’ or forcing parties to take side,” Meanwhile a Beijing-based military expert has noted that all NATO countries are keen to fuel the tensions in the region. “Many European countries within NATO do not share the same view as the US. While NATO may issue strongly worded statements against China, truly pivoting to contain China is something NATO is neither capable of nor likely to achieve”.

India and NATO

India’s foreign policy choices of ‘strategic autonomy’ and ‘multi-alignment’ preclude New Delhi to join the NATO.  In fact India has avoided joining any military alliances since independence and has chosen ‘partnerships’ as a tool to conduct international relations. It has professed non-alignment and spearheaded it to spread it across regions even during the Cold War.

Apparently, in 2023 the US had promoted the idea of “NATO Plus,” a coalition comprising of IP4 “aimed at enhancing global defence cooperation” particularly to “streamline and expedite the process for India to acquire the latest military technology”.  However, the offer was declined and Foreign Minister stated that “NATO template does not apply to India”. Notwithstanding that, India hosted the Indian Air Force-led multinational exercise Tarang Shakti which includes nearly 30 countries, and ten countries will join the exercise with their fighter aircraft. Some of these are NATO member states.

Concluding thoughts 

It is evident that NATO and AP4 are building a mutually-reinforced deterrence mechanism through naval and air deployments and joint exercises in the western Pacific. Besides, under the ITPP, several areas of cooperation have been identified. Russia, China and North Korea are visibly apprehensive of expanded NATO which includes AP4.