India stands at one of the defining moments of its foreign policy. On one hand, we have an souring of relations with the USA – which can spill over to its western allies – ; on the other, we have a gradual reshaping of ties between China, and our traditional ally, Russia. All this has led to speculation that India is gradually veering away from the west, and more towards a China -Russia combine. That is not entirely correct. It is merely reflective of the choices that India has, and that in spite of the choices, our policy would be that of ‘strategic autonomy’ which has held us in good stead and allowed us to preserve an independent policy based solely on national interest.

But recent events have shown, is that India can look beyond the US and the west. It could turn towards Russia and China in an economic partnership, bordering on the strategic. And there are also bilateral ties with individual nations – Japan, Germany, France, Korea, the Middle East nations and Russia. This multi-alignment would be best for India in an increasingly polarised and unpredictable world.

The Bump in Indo-US Ties

The recent speed-breaker in Indo-US ties seems to be more a personal pique which President Trump holds for not being credited for the India and Pakistan ceasefire in May – something that he hoped would bolster his claims for a much-coveted Nobel Peace Prize. Recent pronouncements emanating from Pakistan’s Deputy Prime Minister himself itself have proved that Trump, or the USA,  had no role to play, and that the ceasefire was completely on bilateral terms. But the arbitrary imposition of over 50 percent tariffs on Indian goods – including a horrendous 25 percent ‘sanctions’ for the purchase of Russian oil – and the signals emanating from more hawkish voices in his administration have definitely led to a downturn in ties. India has been wise in sticking to its guns, without retaliation. US pronouncements have toned down, and personal messages between Trump and Modi indicate a revival in the bonhomie. Trade talks will soon resume, and it is very likely that a deal will be hammered out by the end of the year. India would have to make concessions – less the core issue of agriculture, dairy and poultry – and open its markets more widely. But perhaps that itself will force Indian manufacturers to be more competitive. It has taken 25 years to develop Indo-US ties into “The defining partnership of the 21 Century,” and this mantra is increasingly resurfacing. Perhaps this crisis will tide over and even the tariffs could eventually be rolled back. But what would take more time to repair is the loss of trust.

US actions have pushed India towards its traditional friend- Russia; and a traditional adversary – China, in an unlikely, but not entirely inconceivable troika between the three nations. The triple handshake and personal warmth between Prime Minister Modi with President Putin and Xi Jinping in the SCO summit at Tianjin were a signal. Much of it was for optics, but the underlying message was clear. India has demonstrated that it has choices besides the USA and the west, and the choices that it makes can completely rebalance the world order.

The RIC Compact

The meeting of the three leaders has re-raised the idea of Russia-India-China compact (RIC) – an economic and strategic partnership first proposed by Russian Prime Minister Yevgeni Primakov during a visit to India in 1998. The concept took slow shape in the early 2000s and the first RIC meeting between the foreign ministers of the three nations took place in 2007 at the Delhi Security Summit. Over twenty ministerial level meetings have taken place since then, but the concept never really fructified. The idea was eventually grounded after the 2020 Galwan clash between India and China and has resurfaced only after the recent thawing of ties.

The proposal of a compact between Russia-India-China is a game-changer. RIC accounts for over a third of the world’s population and encompasses over a fifth of the global landmass. They hold the world’s second largest, fourth largest (soon to be third) and 11th largest economies and account for 23 percent of the world’s GDP. Scientifically, technologically and industrially, they are amongst the leaders in the world and possess vast resources of oil, gas, food and minerals. They are amongst the top four military powers of the world – after only the USA. Economically, they outstrip the G7 nations. Strategically and economically this compact can more than counter-balance the US led western order, facilitate de-dollarisation and an alternate currency, and create a pole of power that upends the USA and its western allies.

It is tempting, but there are dangers and pitfalls along the way.  For starters, is the state of India-China relations which though on the mend, have been plagued by distrust since 1962. The two share the world largest disputed border which will require a much wiser generation to resolve. And then there is the irritant of Pakistan and the subtle conflict for regional supremacy and resources that can spill over at any time. Even worse, is the likelihood that in the murky world of realpolitik the US could just cut a deal with China or Russia or both and isolate India.

Russia would of course, want to form this troika and is its most ardent proponent. With India there, it balances its own equations with China (with which it is a relatively junior partner on its own). It also provides the economic and strategic alternative that enables it to firmly break the isolation that the west has imposed upon it.

For India, it is an interesting prospect that can be developed in the long term – largely dependent on the trajectory of India-China ties. Should India veer towards the Russia-China combine, it could reshape the global balance of power. It will also hasten the East-versus-West divide and place India firmly on one side – a position we have steadfastly avoided to preserve our strategic autonomy.

So, while India should pursue the RIC troika, it must also get back to normalising Indo-US ties at the earliest.  Many US analysts – including former NSA Jake Sullivan – have been scathing in Trump’s rebuffing of India, calling it as the “USA’s greatest strategic blunder.” Both the US and the Indian administration are working overtime to get things back on an even keel, and that could well come about.  India is more aligned to Western values and concepts. Economically too, we have more to gain from the West in terms of markets, technology and investments, than from China and Russia. Last year, Indo-US trade stood at $129 Billion – with India exporting $87.5 Billion and importing $42.5 Billion worth of goods. And while India-China trade rose to a record $136 Billion, it was made up largely of a staggering $120 Billion of Chinese exports and just around $17 Billion of Indian goods. Chinese investments in Indian markets would also be fraught with long-term risk – especially in critical sectors such as telecom. So, in spite of Trumpian rants, it will be best to repair the damage to Indo-US ties, while still preserving our strategic choices – of which RIC is a very viable one.

Bilateral and Multilateral Ties

While India’s can tilt towards a US and Europe led western order, or what can be loosely called an ‘Eastern One’ in which China, India and Russia are the primary poles of power, we should resist from taking sides, but rather cultivate both. In addition, there are bilateral ties that need to be developed. PM Modi’s recent visit to Japan further cemented ties in the post-Abe era and India and Japan can become the most consequential Asian partnership of this century. Similar partnerships with other Asian partners like South Korea, the Philippines and Vietnam are also in the offing, as with Middle East nations like UAE and Saudi Arabia. And as Europe too feels the brunt of the sheer unpredictability of Trumpian policies, India emerges as a preferred partner. With the trade deal with UK and a likely one with EU, there will be far greater economic cooperation and investments. Germany and France too seek greater strategic cooperation, which can be actively pursued.

Multilateral economic and strategic groupings too can be cemented. The QUAD Summit is to be held in Delhi later this year, and this will be an opportunity to carry the alliance further. Even if the US proves to be a-less-than-enthusiastic partner, India can still go ahead with a loose partnership with Japan and Australia, which can be reinforced by other Asian partners like S Korea, the Philippines, Vietnam and Malaysia. The concept of an ‘Asian NATO’ is actually quite appealing.

Yet, while all this holds potential, the immediate neighborhood too needs to be addressed. Unfortunately, all are neighbours are in a state of churn. With Sri Lanka and the Maldives, relations have fortunately come back to an even keel. But Nepal and Bangladesh are areas of concern. The student unrest in both these nations have thrown up an atmosphere of political uncertainty, which India will have to navigate with great patience. We may have to make greater concessions to our neighbors, being the much larger partner, to enable them to integrate with our economy and stave off growing Chinese influence with the region.

As India becomes stronger economically and strategically, it could well become the fulcrum around which the global balance of power of this century will hinge. It is a position we can utilise deftly, to cultivate the US and Europe led Western order and also the emerging Eastern one loosely centred around China and Russia. In this, our concept of strategic autonomy has held us in good stead, and should be maintained as the cornerstone of our foreign policy. Ties with individual nations like Japan, Germany, Russia and others have to be developed and multilateral alliances like QUAD, BRICS, BIMSTEC have to be reinforced.  There would be blips along the way. Long-standing ties could be tested and newer ones emerge. That has to be accepted as we pursue our independent policy – based purely on national interest – to chart our own course in this century.