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Articles

Russia – China Partnership and its impact on India

Sub Title : Navigating the complexities of the Russia - China partnership and Its Impact on India

Issues Details : Vol 18 Issue 2 May – Jun 2024

Author : Ashwani Sharma, Editor-in-Chief

Page No. : 21

Category : Geostrategy

: June 5, 2024

President Putin’s recent reaffirmation of ties with China marks a pivotal geopolitical event, intensifying the Russia-China alliance and compelling India to recalibrate its strategic posture. Historically, India has maintained a strong relationship with Russia, heavily relying on it for defence supplies and technological cooperation. Russia has been a cornerstone of India’s foreign policy since the Cold War era, acting as a counterbalance to the influence of Western nations in the region and a critical ally in defence matters

The recent visit of President Putin to China to reaffirm and cement the Russia-China relationship represents a significant geopolitical event with broad implications for the regional dynamics of Asia, particularly concerning India. This strengthening of ties between Russia and China occurs amid shifting international alliances and escalating tensions, which places India in a particularly complex strategic position.

Historically, India has maintained a strong relationship with Russia, heavily relying on it for defence supplies and technological cooperation. Russia has been a cornerstone of India’s foreign policy since the Cold War era, acting as a counterbalance to the influence of Western nations in the region and a critical ally in defence matters. However, the evolving dynamics of the Russia-China partnership may compel India to reassess its strategic calculations in the region. The Russia-China nexus forms part of a broader strategy by both nations to counterbalance the United States and its allies. For Russia and China, closer cooperation is seen as a way to create a multipolar world where their voices and interests have more weight. This partnership has been characterized by joint military exercises, alignment on policy issues at the United Nations, and increasing economic interdependence. China’s Belt and Road Initiative and Russia’s Eurasian Economic Union have seen synergies that further integrate their economies.

For India, the implications of a strengthened Russia-China axis are multifaceted. First, it could mean a gradual shift in Russia’s foreign policy priorities. While Russia has traditionally maintained a balance between its relationships with China and India, increased reliance on China could see Russia taking softer stances on issues critical to India, particularly if they conflict with Chinese interests. This shift could affect India’s leverage in negotiations and discussions on international platforms where India has historically relied on Russian support against Chinese aggressiveness.

Secondly, the deepening military cooperation between Russia and China could be a source of concern for India, especially given the ongoing border tensions with China. The transfer of military technology and joint training exercises could potentially enhance Chinese military capability near Indian borders, which is undesirable from a strategic defence perspective. Furthermore, Russia’s increasing economic dependence on China due to Western sanctions could limit India’s economic engagement with Russia. As Western sanctions push Russia closer to China, Russia might prioritize its economic and political ties with China over those with India. This could affect India’s access to critical resources, including energy supplies and defence technology, especially if China views such access as contrary to its strategic interests.

Despite these challenges, India has its strategic imperatives that could help navigate the complexities of a robust Russia-China partnership. India has been diversifying its own international partnerships beyond Russia, enhancing ties with the United States, Europe, Japan, and other nations in the Indo-Pacific region. The strengthening of these relationships could offset any potential dilution of Russian support, providing India with alternative sources of military technology, economic investment, and political backing on international platforms. Moreover, India’s participation in groupings like the Quad is a strategic counter to the increasing cooperation between Russia and China. India must continue to maintain a delicate balance between engaging with Russia and strengthening its ties with other global powers. While the deepening Russia-China relationship poses challenges, it also offers India an opportunity to redefine its place in global geopolitics, promoting its strategic interests through diversified global partnerships and enhanced regional diplomacy.

India’s policy of AatmaNirbharta (self-reliance) especially in defence is well timed to offset the impact of possible reluctance in sharing cutting edge technologies. India’s willingness to work with diverse global partners will also ensure that India is not starved of certain critical technologies while its own ecosystem develops and acquires capability and capacity. Key partners like Japan can collaborate with India and share technologies and capacities for mutual benefit since they share certain common security concerns and goals.

In conclusion, while the solidifying Russia-China relationship may present certain strategic challenges for India, it also propels India towards a more diversified and dynamic foreign policy approach. Managing this complex triangular relationship between Russia, China, and India will require nuanced diplomacy, strategic patience, and a clear understanding of India’s long-term strategic goals. Fortunately, India’s current leadership is well equipped for the tightrope walk and navigate the choppy waters skilfully.