Baluchistan, long shrouded in strategic obscurity and colonial intrigue, stands today at the crossroads of history, insurgency, and geopolitical churn. In Burning Winds and Mirage in Baluchistan, the author traces the region’s deep historical roots, evolving identity struggles, and the contemporary fault lines that define one of South Asia’s most volatile frontiers

Our view of Baluchistan is conditioned by the fact that we focus on the Southern Province of Pakistan. In fact, the land of the Baloch People, ranges from the Gulf of Oman to just short of Karachi. This region is straddled by the political entities of Iran, Afghanistan and Pakistan. One of Its dominating features is the coastline extending from the Gulf of Oman to Karachi, known as the Makran Coast. The region has fascinating origins that over history has seen several kingdoms and principalities. During the British Colonial period it comprised four Princely States and five directly governed regions. During the retreating politico-military paradigm of the British (1945 to 1947), it provided a fertile environment for British Colonial artfulness. In fact, developments in this region, present an interesting parallel to the colonial machinations in the Princely state of Jammu & Kashmir.

The earliest mention of this region is linked to a settlement at MehrGar, in the Kachi Plains dating back to 7000-5500 BCE. MehrGar is connected with the larger Indus and Saraswati Valley Civilisations. In 303 BCE, it is recorded as a part of the Mauryan Empire under Chandragupta Maurya. From the 1st to the third century CE, the area was under the Parataraja dynasty. At the time of the Arab invasion CE 644, this region was ruled by the Rai dynasty centred in Sindh. By 654 CE what is Pakistani Baluchistan, was under the Caliphate, and this lasted till the end of the 10th century. Baloch migration to this region dates back to the 14th Century, when there was considerable tumult in Central Asia. The Baloch migration to Persia and Eastwards, was precipitated by the Seljuk Turk invasion of Persia. Baloch population spread through South Eastern Iran, to Southern Afghanistan, (Nimruz, Helmand and Kandahar), and extended up to Las Bela, short of Karachi. The region is characterised by a unique mixture of linguistic groups, such as Brahui (Dravidian linked), Balochi, Pushtun, Dari, Sindhi and Urdu. There is a relationship between the Balochis and Kurds, including linguistic connections.

The territorial extent of modern Baluchistan, which is the largest province of Pakistan came into being consequent to the border agreement by the British with Iran in 1877 and the treaty of Gandhamak, in 1879. The internal administrative ambitions of the British, were facilitated by the permanent lease, of the Bolan region and Quetta in 1875, by the Khan of Kalat. This led to the creation of the Baluchistan Agency, directly administered by the British.

Of the various tribal chieftains, the most preeminent have been the rulers of Kalat. The title of the Khans of Kalat reportedly, dates back to 1666. Their control for most of history extended over the territories of Las Bela, Kharan and Makran. By the end of 1877 Kalat was regarded as an Indian State. It was in Kalat that the British chose to play their favourite form of intrigue. In time they appointed a PM, to the State answerable to the British. In 1933 Ahmed Yar Khan repeatedly agitated, demanding autonomy, and claiming independent non-Indian status. The British recognised Kalat as a separate State with suzerainty over Las Bela and Kharan, what suzerainty implied, was never specified. Let’s not forget the echo of ‘Suzerainty’ the British conjured term, along our Northern Borders. This confabulation was to lead to the first Baloch insurgency in 1948.

During the colonial Great Game, the first reconnaissance by British officers began in 1810. As Afghanistan loomed, in 1839, the British Army of the Indus, headed for Afghanistan. Denied access to the Khyber Pass by Maharaja Ranjit Singh, it had to move through the Multan-Bolan-Kandahar axis. As it plodded its way through Baluch territories, paying exorbitantly, it was repeatedly warned of failure in Afghanistan. Of course, they were raided, harried and exploited. The British had to acknowledge the rule of Mehran Khan of Kalat. This transit, proved a living hell, for the British.

For the Colonial British in the Indian subcontinent, the significance of Karachi and the connectivity through Bolan Pass to Afghanistan was critical. Karachi a necropolis of 18 million people today contributes up to 70% revenue and 30 % of the GDP of Pakistan. It was equally critical to the US and NATO during their years in Afghanistan. The Arabian Sea was always central for the British. Having left the Sub-Continent in 1947, they held Aden till 1963 and operated the Persian Gulf Residency from Bushire and Bahrain till 1971. The British still hold the Chagos Archipelago which provides a powerful Allied Base. Related to the strategic Makran Coast the British wanted it in firm Pakistani control. The status of Gwadar did not concern them since the Gulf Residency dealt directly with it.

A brief narration of the unique history of Gwadar is necessitated. In about 1783, the son of the Sultan of Oman sought the help of Mir Noori Nasir Khan Balouch, the Khan of Kalat, for the financial proceeds from Gwadar. This was to facilitate the removal of his father. The Khan awarded 50% of Gwadar’s revenue and its territorial autonomy to him. Apparently, Gwadar would be returned to Kalat, once Bin Ahmed became the Sultan. In 1792 Sultan bin Ahmed took over Oman, and Oman continued to hold Gwadar till 1958. It offered Gwadar to India in 1950, but India refused. Thereafter Gwadar was sold to Pakistan, and its purchase was financed by the 49th Nizari Imam of the Ismailis, amounting to `5.5 billion, reportedly. Consequently, the close relations between Oman and the Baloch are understandable. Balochis have served in the Omani Armed Forces for decades.

There is a conflation of four factors that underwrites the present situation in Baluchistan. First, the Baluch people themselves have through the ages, been committed to their freedom, way of life, and autonomy. Secondly, there is a unique, centuries long relationship between the Baluchis and the Afghans. Thirdly, the nature of Pakistan as a State; has been unable to politically gravitate to national cohesion. There is an exceedingly low tolerance for socio-cultural and ethnic diversity. Lastly, Pakistan’s manner in dealing with insurgencies or irredentism, is tantamount to declaring war. This generates hatred, and counters national integration. Resultantly, there have been five distinct insurgencies in Baluchistan, the present being the fifth.

In keeping with their unfulfilled demands the Baluch insurgencies date from 1948, 1958-59, 1962-63, 1973-77, and the present, underway since 2002. All the earlier insurgencies were put down with extreme brutality, barbarism, and military force, land and air. In Iran, there have been Baluch insurgencies during the period of the Shah, led by Mir Dost Mohammad Khan Baloch, as well as the Jundullah uprisings led by Abdolmalek Rigi. The latter continued, supported from Pakistani bases till 2010. Both these leaders were finally executed in Tehran.

The Baluchis follow an eclectic form of Islam as compared to the Afghans. They are secular in outlook and their clergy does not have a compelling status in society. Time and again the Baloch and Sindhi secular leaders have joined with Afghan nationalists to oppose Punjabi hegemony. That apart, Baluchis have been part of Afghan Armies over centuries. It is believed that some of the Baluchis who were part of Abdali’s contingent at Panipat (1761), brought back with them Maharashtrians, whose descendant’s, still inhabit villages in Baluchistan, and follow their unique beliefs.

Quetta has always been a great centre for the Southern Tribal leaders of Afghanistan to convene. About 150 miles from Kandahar, as the Taliban coalesced, Quetta (‘Pashtunabad’), became their de facto capital. Training camps, Madrassas, Afghan habitations, all mushroomed. The build-up of the Taliban in the southern provinces and Zabul was from this base. Later the Taliban expansion 2003/4, was supported and provisioned through Quetta and Chaman. Balochis and Afghans have fostered extremely close relationships. Quetta has been home to both Hamid Karzai, and Mullah Omar. Thousands of Afghan families lived here in peace while their males fought in Afghanistan. This synergy has benefitted the Baloch insurgency, tactics and organisation. Balochis have also gained from the arms, munitions and equipment abandoned by the US and NATO. Punjabi exceptionalism, extreme military force, ruthlessness, with little reconciliation, have converged Tehreek e Taliban Pakistan, (TTP) and Baloch Resistance.

The third factor is the identity of Pakistan. While MA Jinnah visualised a secular democratic state, post 1948, the military and clergy, reinterpreted Pakistan as a religious entity. The Army is deeply Islamic. Consequently, an inability to forge, a national identity has intensified ethnic, linguistic, and regional nationalism. Punjab with 65% of the population and 75% share in the Army, has never excepted Pakistan as a multi-ethnic state. While Bhutto evolved a constitution in 1973, the Pakistan Army created many anomalies in it. 102 of these were removed by the April 2010 Bill of Amendments, and devolution of powers was mandated, but implementation is desultory.

Baluchistan is the largest province of Pakistan with 40% of its land mass. A population of 14.9 million, of which 52% are Balochi. 71.2% of the population reportedly suffer multidimensional poverty. Literacy is 26.6%.  Administratively divided into six divisions and 34 districts. The region is rich in natural gas, coal, copper, gold and iron. The ReKo Diq area is estimated to contain 5.9 billion tonnes of copper and gold. The region is physically divided into the upper Highlands, the central and North Eastern areas, the Suleiman range and the Toba Kaka range. A close crop of Hills forms a barrier just north of the Makran coastline.

Unfulfilled Baloch demands since 1948 have been, for greater autonomy, more control over revenue, greater funds for development, and devolution of constitutional and administrative powers. Second and third level aspirations are far on the horizon. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CEPC), represents a fresh exploitation, without any benefits for the Balochis. CEPC visualises 2.3 million jobs, 2-2.5% additional growth, with enormous upgrades to road, rail, industrial, and electrical facilities. For China among other significant advantages, its 12000 KM oil transportation reality from the Gulf, gets reduced to 2,395 KM, with a saving of approximately 2 billion USD a year, (present estimates). It also negates China’s Malacca dilemma and furthers the Chinese ambition to have a base on the Arabian Sea.

On 28 Nov 2022, talks with the TTP collapsed, cementing the convergence between the TTP and Baloch groups. The quintet of main Baloch Nationalist groups, (BNA, BLA, BLF, BLT and UBA), have seldom been approached with any reconciliation. Brutal killing of Akbar Bugti in 2006 by the Pakistani Army, was a definitive point of departure. Surprisingly the dominant identities and independent nature, of the entities in the AF – PAK region and Baluchistan have been known for centuries. Pakistan’s aggressive and uncompromising approach is consequently anachronistic. The highest year of internal conflict casualties in Pakistan was 2009, an assessed 11,317. Due to harsh military measures, it was 365 in 2019. Commencing 2020, marks an upswing in casualties, with a peak of 1502 in 2023 (a six-year high), In 2023 Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Baluchistan accounted for 90% of fatalities and 84% of attacks in Pakistan. The surge was 54% in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and 63% in Baluchistan over 2021. 2024 recorded 2236 casualties with 790 incidents.  Till 17 May 2025, there are 1360 casualties from 368 incidents.

The Pakistan establishment led by a three-star officer, has an assessed force of 9 Inf Battalions,6 Police Wings and civil armed forces.  The Command entity is 34 Light Infantry Division. Pakistan Maritime Security Agency operates along the coast, with seacraft from Pakistan and China.

Recent attacks on multiple targets in Baluchistan are a high-water mark.

The Baloch and TTP have been very bold and aggressive. They unwaveringly go for spectacular targets, with a multiple-attack approach. Integrating fedayeen, IEDs, with high mobility high volume kinetic assaults. Targets have been the Army, Police, Coast Guard, Govt officials, Chinese nationals and assets. They claimed the downing of GOC XII Corp’s helicopter in Aug 2022 killing all on board. The areas around Quetta see greater TTP signatures.

The 27 August 2024 attack, on the death anniversary of Akbar Bugti, marked a change in strategy. Its Geographic spread from Musakhali, to Pasni covered the whole province. It was a multiple objective attack. From assaults on security and police personnel to an infrastructure strike at Bolan, and focused ethnic targeting of civilians. A full array of violence was displayed. Achieving surprise, they demonstrated skill in explosives, ability to hold highways, destroy transportation, and undertake targeted executions. The messaging conveyed, ability to attack Punjabis with impunity, and target the vital Bolan connectivity. Significantly capability for coordinated complex planning and command over widely dispersed, simultaneous operations, was displayed. The 11 March 2025 attack is equally remarkable. All figures in this incident are unconfirmed. The Jaffer Express with 450 passengers (including 100 troops), was attacked 157 Km from Quetta,21 Km west of Sibi, with the engine blown up in tunnel number 8, and four coaches instantly derailed. There was a 36-hour, stand-off, with Pakistani Special Forces,214 hostages were taken,18/26 hostages killed after confirming identity, women and children were left off. The claim is that all 33 BLA persons were killed 354/300 hostages rescued including 37 injured persons. BLA demand was for the release of all political prisoners.

People do not fight for decades because of money and material. History informs us that revolutions, insurgencies and irredentism, are fired by ideals, a burning desire for rights, a better life, a hopeful future. Over time the populace of the AF-PAK region and Baluchistan, has been willing to war, die and sacrifice their present, for their cherished ideals. It is tantalising to think of the Indian hand in Baluchistan. Not only has there never been a shred of evidence, for these accusations, but also the Balochis by their own intellect, blood and actions have demonstrated an uncompromising commitment to their cause.

Given the history and demonstrated socio cultural aspirations of the populace of the AF-PAK region, and Baluchistan, what is required is reconciliation, mutual understanding, accommodation and restoration of human values. None of this emerges from the barrel of a gun. Like the Afghans the Baloch have displayed tenacity of purpose and an inability to be socio-culturally seconded. Unless Pakistan redefines itself, and its outreach to Baluchistan it may chase the Mirage-‘Suhrab’; but will face the Burning Winds of Baluchistan –‘Sogtagen Hor.’

“when the world becomes a fight for the poor

Their naked bodies struggle against hunger

Then better than this pain and

this tortured life

Let there be War, let heads roll,

let palaces burn”

Mir Gul Khan Naseer

(Baloch poet 1914-1983)

Lt Gen Sanjiv Langer PVSM, AVSM, former member AFT and Dy Chief, IDS