Despite hopes for peace in the 21st century, escalating conflicts have led to record-breaking deaths and displacements. In 2024 alone, 42 wars wreaked havoc globally. This article explores key events, focusing on the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war and its widening dimensions, West Asia,  Syria and other conflicts around the world.

“If the 20th Century was the century of war, the 21st will be one of peace.” This was the widely touted dictum at the start of this century, with the hope that the 21st century would indeed bring in an era of global peace. These hopes have been belied. By the first quarter of the century, the world has already seen more wars, more conflict related deaths, greater displacements and damage than the combined wars of the entire past century (not counting the two world wars).

And in this century, so far 2024 has been the worst year on record. According to Centre of Peace and Conflict Studies there have been 42 major and minor wars – largely in Africa, Asia, Europe and Southern America – that has led to over a quarter of a million combat deaths, over 600000 civilian casualties and the displacement of an astounding 18 million people.

2024 has also been the year of elections. Over 64 democracies – representing almost half the world’s population – cast their vote. One common trend was a rise of the far right everywhere from USA to Europe and Asia. It was also the year when temperature rise exceeded 1.5°C – the danger mark beyond which there could be no comeback. And the forest fires raging across Australia, South America and California bear testimony to that. All in all, the world has been a hot place.

The Russia – Ukraine War

The year 2023 ended with the much touted Ukrainian offensive fizzling out without attaining any tangible gains. True to form, Russia followed up their defensive success by launching their own offensives early this year, in the Donbas and Kharkiv region. In the Donbas sector they have pushed ahead, capturing more area than they did in the past two years. By the end of the year, they were dangerously close to Pokrovsk, a vital rail and road communication centre whose fall could open the way up to the Dnieper River.

Russia also followed up with an offensive in Kharkiv in July, which made initial gains before it lost momentum. Perhaps, it was in response to the Russian offensives, that Ukraine launched its much vaunted incursion in Kursk – the area of the famous battle of World War II – with four brigades that captured around 1000 km² of territory, including the town of Sudzhy and reached the line of the Seym river. It was hoped that this action would force Russia to pull out troops from their own offensives to counter it. Instead, Russia used the gaps created in the Ukrainian defensive layout (by the pulling out of troops for their offensive) and pushed even further and attained major gains. The Kursk incursion has shrunk from its initial depth of 30 kms and is now restricted to a salient that is around 10-12 kms deep and 10 km wide. This salient has been repeatedly counter-attacked with Russian and North Korean troops and is gradually shrinking. In fact, the entry of around 12,000 North Korean troops, sent by Kim Jong Un to his friend Putin, has given a new dimension to the war.  It gave Biden the excuse to grant permission for Ukraine to use US supplied long range missiles in to Russian territory- an act a which sparked a long range missile war in which Russia unleashed its latest hypersonic missile – ORESHNIK.

Present Situation: (Map Courtesy –  ISW)

Trump has promised that he will “end the war within a week” after it takes over on 20th January 25. He is far more inclined towards the Russian point of view and willing to accept a ceasefire on a “as is where is basis”. This implies that Russia will be able to keep the nearly 18% of Ukrainian territory that it has captured. Peace talks could come up around March to June this year, which may bring some respite.

The Exploding Middle East

As the Ukraine war raged in Europe, the Middle East exploded as well.  In this traditionally battle-torn region, the war expanded in scope to encompass Gaza, Israel, the West Bank, Lebanon, Yemen, Iran and Syria.

There was just a brief weeklong respite in Nov 23, when a ceasefire was brokered between Israel and Hamas. The bombing stopped, the offensive paused and 105 Israeli hostages were returned. Yet, just hours after the truce expired, Israel continued its offensive striking Rafah in South Gaza in January searching for hostages and Hamas members. That offensive attained little but local destruction, and Israel shifted the focus of operations again towards Gaza City in the north, and then Khan Younis in the south, and back to Gaza City. Israel has destroyed 23 of an estimated 24 Hamas battalions, and eliminated the top leadership of Yahya Sinwar, Mohammed Dief, and Marwan Issa. Even the Hamas political chief, Ismail Haniyeh was assassinated in a strike in the heart of Teheran itself. In the process, they have also killed around 47,000 Gazans, displaced over 1.6 million people (of a population of 2.4 million) and destroyed over 65% of its buildings and infrastructure.

The only saving grace came in January 25, after 15 months of war, when Israel and Hamas agreed on a phase ceasefire. In the initial  six weeks there would be a ceasefire, with the gradual withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza and the return of 33 hostages in exchange for over 1100 Palestinian prisoners in Israeli jails. Subsequent negotiations will continue for the release of the remaining hostages and complete Israeli withdrawal from Gaza in the next phase. And in the final phase, reconstruction of Gaza and the establishment of governance will begin under the aegis of the UN, Egypt and Qatar.

Israel had other fronts opening up with the Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, the militia of the West Bank and Syria, and even Iran with whom they traded missile and air strikes for the first time in their hostile history. There had been raids and rockets attacks going on virtually daily between the Hezbollah and Israel along the Lebanon border forcing the evacuation of Israeli settlers. But the Hezbollah was spectacularly defanged in September, when over 500 pagers and walkie-talkies used by Hezbollah cadres, exploded in their hands and pockets. This crippled virtually the entire senior and middle level leadership and has to rank as amongst the most spectacular counter-terrorist operations in history. Barely two weeks later, the Hezbollah Chief, Hassan Nasrallah was killed in an Israeli airstrike in Beirut. But in spite of this setback, the Hezbollah cadres proved remarkably resilient and the Israeli ground incursion into Lebanon, met stiff resistance and larger-than-admitted casualties. Fortunately, a 60 day ceasefire was signed on 27 November, in which Hezbollah agreed to move its weapons and cadres northwards behind the line of the Litani River and Israeli forces moved South, behind the ‘Blue Line – creating a buffer zone which will be occupied by Lebanese troops and UN forces. This ceasefire, though temporary, will hopefully last out the rest of the year.

Iran and Israel have also traded blows. On 13 April, in response to the Israeli attack on the Iranian consulate in Damascus, Iran launched a series of  largely ineffective missile and rocket into Israel. Israel responded a week later, with a similar symbolic strike hitting Isfahan and Natanz and the situation seemed to have been brought under control – for the time being. It escalated again on 01 Oct, when Iran and its proxies launched over 200 coordinated rocket, missile and drone attacks in to Israel after the assassination of the Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh in Teheran. This triggered off the Israeli response (OP DAYS OF REPENTENCE) when around 100 aircraft attacked in three waves  hitting military sites, rocket and missile production facilities, Air Defence batteries and ammunition dumps inside Iran, and returned unscathed. This proved the dominance of the Israeli Air Force and showed how easily they could penetrate Iran’s air defence and strike with impunity. This could be the test-bed, should they decide to attack its nuclear installations at a later juncture.

In spite of world objections and global criticism, Israel has gone ahead with its military aims, and crippled most of their adversaries. Should they get the hostages back in the prisoner swap, Netanyahu can boast of ‘total victory. In spite of all provocations, the Abrahams Accord still holds. Iran finds  its proxies eliminated, its weaknesses glaringly exposed, and now fearful of being the next target.

Syria- Under new Management

To compound the turmoil in the Middle East, at the end of the year – on 27 November – a coalition of rebel groups under the banner of Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS) broke out of their strongholds in Northern Syria and raced to Damascus in just 11 days, forcing President Bashar- Al Assad to flee, and bringing the calamitous 13-year-long civil war to an abrupt end. Few will lament the end of 51 years of tyrannical rule by the Assad family. But the taking over of Syria by an organisation described as “a terror group” and headed by Ahmad al Sharaa, a man with a $10 million reward on his head, is cause for concern.

Almost as soon as the rebels stormed into  Damascus, Israel launched a series of air and missile attacks that wiped out Syria’s air, naval and military assets, destroying ammunition dumps, airbases, naval ships, air defence and missile sites. It also sent troops deep into the Golan Heights and took  over the crucial Mount Hermon – which now enables them to have a vital buffer and overlook Damascus itself. Turkey also took over a slice of territory in the north eastern province – to pre-empt the Kurds who are demanding a homeland there. Already in-fighting has begun between the different warring groups – each with different agendas and backers. In spite of promises of moderation, there are fears that Syria will fall into the hands of Islamic fundamentalists and slip into chaos.

Syria is headed for a period of instability and transition. As is all of the Middle East. At the end of it all, Israel and the USA seem to have come out Trumps.

Regional Chaos

India’s neighbourhood too has seen its share of instability – which has touched Afghanistan, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Sri Lanka and even Nepal. The most significant is the turmoil in Pakistan, which is ripped apart by the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and the actions of Baloch freedom fighters. Its deteriorating relations with the Taliban also threatens to spiral into an all-out war with Afghanistan. Pakistan, will however, be covered in detail in a separate article.

On India’s other flank, Bangladesh too has slipped into turmoil. A Student-People’s Uprising, or the ‘July Revolution’ as it is now known, shook the Awami League government out of power. Sheikh Hasina‘s autocratic government had been high-handed alright, but she was a dear friend of India and her policies were good for both countries. The protests began innocuously enough, on the issue of  allotment of reserved government jobs for the families of those who fought the freedom struggle of 1971. Even though Sheikh Hasina rescinded the Supreme Court order on the subject, the protesters continued, insisting on the removal of Hasina from power – and forced her to flee to India on 05 August. The speed and violence with which the movement spread, could only have been possible through external assistance and many fingers point to USA.

An interim government under Nobel Laurette Mohammed Yunus was formed, with the promise of early elections. But, what is dangerous is the rise of extremist forces like the Jamaat-e-Islami (which had been banned) and targeting of minorities. The role of the army in the wings is also doubtful and there are fears that it may take over as it did in 1975 (and ruled the country till 1990) and again briefly in 2007. There has been increased anti-India vitriolic and attacks on Hindus. This has upended two decades of good relations, and Indian diplomacy will be sorely tested with the new dispensation.

Myanmar. To compound the issue, the Myanmar civil war has also intensified. The war which began in 2021, when the Tatmadaw upended election results, jailed Aung San Suu Kyi and her party members, and the army took over power with General Min Aung Hlaing at the helm. That unleashed a popular movement for the restoration of democracy with rebel ethnic  groups like the Kachin Independent Army, the Arakan Army, the Shin Brotherhood and others joining under the banner of People’s Defense Forces. For two years there was a stalemate with the Army resorting to high handed measures – including the bombing of entire villages. But in this year, the rebel groups have made major gains. The Chinland Defence force has captured much of Chin state; the Three Brotherhood Alliance captured Lashio; and the Arakan Army captured most of Rakhine State. The Army is squarely on the backfoot now and controls just 40 percent of the country and around 60 percent of its townships. Four years of civil war has killed over 50,000 and created over 3 million refugees, and the war does not seem to be heading for an immediate closure.

Other Civil Wars

Elsewhere in the world, long standing civil wars continue unabated. Sudan has been reeling ever since the warlord, Mohammed Hamdan ‘Hemedti’ Dagalo  and his fighters of the Rapid Support Force took on the Sudanese Armed Forces in April 23. Since then, the war has taken on ethnic and tribal lines. There have been over  9000 attacks by either side which have killed 35,000 people and displaced over 12 million – the largest in recent times. The rebel groups are now on the ascendency and are moving in towards the capital of Khartoum.

It is a similar case in Somalia, Yemen, and Congo.

In Congo, ethnic conflict between the Hutus and Tutsis has intensified and a little known rebel group M23 is marching on the capital.

The civil wars of Somalia and Yemen too have been going on for years with casualties that defies imagination. Lakhs have been killed by disease and starvation and millions displaced from their homes. In spite of the tragedy of the wars, they have been neglected and forgotten by the world. Similarly the violent insurgencies going on in Sub-Saharan Africa has seen the Islamic State and its affiliates virtually take over the states of Mali, Niger, Nigeria, and Burkina Faso. This will provide a base from where Islamic fundamentalist can establish their sway across the region. The War against Terror is by no means over and will soon come back to haunt USA and Europe.

India and the World

The wars – especially the strife in our immediate neighbourhood – have had an impact on India.  Fortunately, we have held our own and the internal situation is stable. Individual acts of terrorism continue to strike Kashmir and the Naxalite prone areas, but both places are gradually coming under control. The most heartening has been the disengagement along the Line of Actual Control with China, which has somewhat thawed the strained relations of the past four years. Along the LOC too, the ceasefire holds, because fortunately, Pakistan is preoccupied with its internal mess. But that does not stop them from fomenting terrorism in Kashmir. As per the Army Chief, over 60% of the militants still come from across the border.

But a cause for concern is that India’s relations with virtually all its neighbours are not all that harmonious. That is something that needs to be addressed seriously.

US’ confrontation with China is a possibility–and not just a trade war. China makes no bones of its intention to take over Taiwan, by 2027, “by military force if required.” Ever since the nationalistic,

pro-independence Democratic People’s Party won the elections in February 24 and came into power in Taiwan, China has upped the ante. Air and naval incursions take place almost on a daily basis across the Straits of Taiwan. China conducted two exercises – JOINT SWORD 2024A and JOINT SWORD 2024B–in Feb and October which used 153 aircraft and 46 naval vessels (including the Liaoning Carrier Group) which simulated a full-scale invasion of the island.

All in all. 2024 has been a turbulent ride. The only saving grace has been that at the end of the year there has been a glimmering of peace in the two most intense conflict zones – Ukraine and the Middle East. Hopefully, these will find resolution in 2025. But then, other conflict zones – Iran, Taiwan, Korea could resurface. And of course, the world seems to be well on its way to losing the war against climate change – the greatest threat facing mankind – but is blithely ignoring it. The world is getting hotter in more ways than one – and perhaps the coming year will simply follow this trend.