By Lt Gen A B Shivane, PVSM, AVSM, VSM (Retd)

The winds of conflict that swept through South Asia during Operation Sindoor did more than retaliate against a terror strike in Pahalgam. They unmasked a deeper, more dangerous dynamic, one that’s been evolving across decades: the collusive, coordinated hostility of two nuclear-armed neighbours -Pakistan and China, directed squarely at India.

While India launched a precision, technology-driven strike against Pakistan’s terror infrastructure, the shadows of Chinese involvement loomed large. In reality, Operation Sindoor was not just a limited war with Pakistan. It was a two-in-one front war -Pakistan as the trigger, China as the enabler. In many ways, what Hezbollah is to Iran, Pakistan is to China.

A Pattern Etched in Provocations

Look closely at the events of the last decade: Depsang in 2013. Uri in 2016. Doklam in 2017. Pulwama in 2019. Galwan in 2020. Bangladesh’s shifting dynamics in 2023. And now, Pahalgam in 2025. The rhythm and sequencing is unmistakable. India’s adversaries have created a sequence, keeping India on the boil, distracting its focus, and stymying its rise.

It’s a pattern, not a coincidence. A carefully choreographed campaign to stretch India’s military, political and economic bandwidth. Whether it’s by design or default, this triangular hostility aims to keep India simmering just below the threshold of full-scale war, ensuring it remains reactive rather than strategic.

 

The China-Pakistan Axis

Pakistan’s long-standing dependency on Chinese military and economic support has been a critical factor shaping India’s security calculus. Operation Sindoor vividly illustrated this dynamic. The Chinese role extended beyond mere equipment supply. Intelligence-sharing via satellite surveillance and electronic warfare support were reportedly pivotal in Pakistan’s initial operational posture. This confirms that China functions as the protector of Pakistan’s strategic ambitions, employing a blend of economic debt diplomacy and military technology transfers that have turned Pakistan into a de facto Chinese proxy on India’s Western front.

During Operation Sindoor, this collusive machinery was on full display. Chinese radios and rifles were found with the terrorists. Satellite intelligence shared from Chinese platforms helped Pakistan monitor Indian troop movement. Pakistan’s 80% war arsenal has a ‘Made in China and Made against India’ signature. And in a damning twist, debris from Chinese-supplied missiles landed in Punjab, unmistakably marking the Dragon’s invisible hand. Chinese Air Defence systems too were in deep slumber while India struck with impunity. Op Sindoor was a limited war between India and Pakistan, yet the test was of Chinese equipment versus Indian equipment, in which China stood exposed and embarrassed.

 

Strategic Triangle: A Powder Keg Waiting to Ignite

The relationship between China, India, and Pakistan forms one of the most fragile and dangerous geopolitical simmering cauldron in the world today. This triangle, home to nearly half the population on Earth, geographically houses three nuclear powers as neighbours with disputed borders and is marked by deep ideological differences and clashing strategic cultures.

China’s strategy towards India aims to prevent India from emerging as a dominant regional power that can challenge its expansionist ambitions, especially in the Indo-Pacific. However, China is equally wary of provoking a direct military conflict with India. Instead, it employs strategic ambiguity and indirect conflict management — bolstering Pakistan as a proxy force while engaging in border posturing and limited transgressions in the Himalayan region. This approach allows China to stretch Indian military resources across two fronts without engaging in outright war. China also leaves no leaf unturned to fuel the internal faultlines of India, especially in the NE States of India.

 

Fighting a Two-in-One Front

Operation Sindoor epitomized India’s strategic agility by effectively fighting a one-front war with two players – Pakistan directly and China indirectly. Thus a two-in-one front. While Pakistan initiated the conflict backed by Chinese materiel and covert assistance, China carefully calibrated its involvement to avoid open confrontation, instead leveraging strategic messaging and border posturing to send a message of warning without escalating to war. Even the terrorists of Pahalgam carried Chinese radio sets and weapons.

This approach aligns with China’s broader regional posture: avoid direct war with India while using Pakistan to destabilise and weaken India strategically. China’s role in the recent conflict reflected its strategy of avoiding open war with India while backing Pakistan to keep India under pressure. The statements of lack of trust in India be it LAC or LoC were part of the information warfare.

 

Strategic Messaging Beyond Borders

The success of Sindoor resonated far beyond South Asia. It sent a chill through Pakistan’s allies — the so-called “Three Brothers Alliance” of Turkey, and Azerbaijan, besides China, that external support means little without indigenous strength. That Indian retaliation will be precise, and resolute.

China, too, received a message. Not just militarily, but politically. For far too long, Beijing has enjoyed the luxury of plausible deniability — backing Pakistan’s aggression while talking trade with India. Sindoor changed that equation. If Pakistan is the viper, China is the handler. India has shown it’s willing to both tame the dragon and trample the viper.

 

The Road Ahead: Readiness, Resolve, Retribution

India’s security calculus has irreversibly changed. The threat is triangular, the response must be multi-dimensional, and the deterrence must be layered. Strategic autonomy cannot be rhetorical—it must rest on Atmanirbharta in defence, economic resilience, and information dominance.

While the USA funds Pakistan, China protects it, and Islamist alliances cheer it, India must stand alone, but not isolated—a civilisational power with clarity, conviction, and capability. The future of regional peace lies in India’s ability to manage the triangle—not by balancing it, but by redefining its geometry.

India must not just be prepared to proactively respond and if irked demolish threat. This must result in:

• National Security Strategy (NSS). The absence of a stated national security strategy creates a disconnect and inhibits coherence in matters relating to national security policy and decision-making.

• The Integrated Theatre Command. In the Indian operational context and aspirations, it merits a review of its necessity, structures and outcomes. Interdependence, service empowerment and synergising of theatre resources must seek precedence over new top-heavy structures which could impede the OODA loop and restrict flexibility.
• Indian National Defence University. Along with NSS, the nation deserves an Indian National Defence University to create a national-level defence ecosystem. The strategic defence community need to understand global security and our adversary’s perspective better.
• Smart Autonomy with Real Power. Atmanirbharta (self-reliance) in defence isn’t just a slogan. India needs technology induction balancing the kinetic and non-kinetic domains besides contact and non-contact vectors. Smart Atmanirbharta is when the indigenous acquisition cycle matches the technology cycle.
• Cognitive Warfare and Narrative Dominance. China wins without fighting by controlling narratives. India must dominate global and domestic information battles exposing Chinese duplicity and Pakistani terror sponsorship.
• Denial and Domination Posture. From Arunachal to Andaman, from Ladakh to Lakshadweep, India must adopt a proactive and pre-emptive posture. Not escalation, but denial cum domination. This requires relooking at our strategies and posture. For too long have we remained reactive with defensive mindsets.
• Diplomatic Deterrence. China’s intransigence on Arunachal Pradesh and Tibet should meet calibrated Indian responses — stronger Taiwan ties, Tibet advocacy, and global coalition-building in Indo-Pacific forums.

Operation Sindoor is not the end. It is the doctrine of New Bharat of a new way of smart warfighting, where every front is fought with clarity, every proxy is punished, and every message is sent in steel.

 

Lt Gen Shivane is a former DG, Mechanised Forces, Indian Army